美国经济增长强劲，消费支出与企业活动激增，无视5%的债券收益率

The U.S. economy continues to expand, and soaring borrowing costs have attracted market attention

While the U.S. economy continues to expand, the rise in borrowing costs seems to have completely gotten out of control. On Friday, U.S. Treasury yields rose again. Among them, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once hit 5.230% in intraday trading, the highest level since June 2007; the 30-year U.S. bond yield exceeded 5.51%, reaching this point for the first time since 2004.

At the same time, short-term bonds followed closely, with the yield on 2-year U.S. bonds moving closer to 4.90%. According to common sense, such yield levels are usually interpreted as a signal of weak market demand. However, this is not the case-current consumption vitality, business activity, manufacturing performance and large-scale investment in artificial intelligence (AI) together support the strong momentum of the economy.

Wall Street is hotly debated: The underlying motivation for the rapid rise in yields

The current focus of Wall Street is: Why are yields rising so fast? Inflation remains one potential driver, with strong economic output another. As the federal deficit widens, Washington's growing borrowing needs are also closely watched by the market.

Investors are nervous because each of the above explanations points to interest rates remaining high for longer. Despite the pressure, the stock market has shown resilience. The S & P 500 remained hovering near historical highs in September, while growth stocks outperformed many cyclical sectors.

这种强势出现在市场即将迎来一个历来能产生全年最强股票回报率的季度之际。然而，估值偏高以及即将到来的美国中期选举季节，也为市场增添了新的风险层。

最新商业数据将增长议题重新推回债券市场辩论中心

周三公布的经济数据为“增长派”提供了新的论据。标普全球（S&P Global）发布的一项备受关注的商业调查显示，美国企业的状况显著改善。其制造业指标录得2022年以来最大的月度增幅，服务业增速更快，达到2021年以来的最强水平，新订单的增加是推动这一增长的主要因素。

通常情况下，此类报告的受关注度不及主要的通胀或就业数据。但此次交易员们注意到了这一变化。随着投资者开始考虑经济是否正在加速而非降温，债券抛售加速，收益率随之上行。

Yardeni Research的首席投资策略师Ed Yardeni表示：“债券收益率大幅上升的主要原因是美国经济正处于繁荣期。”

这一观点也影响了股市的交易逻辑。如果利率上升是因为企业和家庭产生了更多需求，而非通胀再次失控，那么部分投资者认为，大型科技公司的处境将比经济敏感型行业更为有利。

Artificial intelligence spending is an important part of this calculation. Tens of billions of dollars are flowing to chips, computing infrastructure, data centers and other AI-related projects. These growth-oriented investments keep growth stocks in the market's spotlight even as government borrowing costs rise.

Consumers continue to unleash purchasing power, and Fed officials track strong demand

Household consumption has been one of the most significant factors explaining why the economy has not slowed significantly. In fact, although the indicator showed some weakness at the beginning of the year, the annualized growth rate of real consumer spending rebounded to 3.4% in the second quarter. Estimates suggest consumption will continue to grow in the third quarter. Consumer spending growth will be close to 4%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model.

Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, recently pointed out that the economic situation remains strong despite tariff pressure and rising oil prices. She mentioned that consumer demand, a solid job market and a large-scale artificial intelligence investment cycle are the main components of the current situation. In addition, she also believes that rising stock prices will provide additional impetus for household consumption.

Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, expressed similar views during a panel discussion in Cleveland on Friday. Beth pointed out that multiple forces are affecting Treasury yields, but strong economic performance is undoubtedly one of them.

"I think the economic growth data is pretty solid," said Beth."If you look at the earnings and profits of listed companies, they have been performing better than expected and there are what I think is signs of resilience in the market starting to price."

Beth further pointed out that the labor market is still close to what she defines as full employment. At the same time, she also noted that the market reflected increased expectations among traders for further Fed rate hikes. Still, she mentioned that the federal government's fiscal policy is unsustainable.

Consumers have repeatedly surprised policymakers by not cutting back on spending as expected. "We've been expecting consumers to retreat for years, but they haven't," Beth said."They continue to spend, and that's been driving economic growth."

Deficit concerns cannot be ignored: Political factors may be key variables

The deficit issue has certainly not been forgotten. Wil Stith, senior bond portfolio manager at Wilmington Trust, believes political factors in Washington are more important than recent economic growth data.

Wil admitted that economic growth has indeed put upward pressure on government bond yields, but he is more worried about the government. He attributed the rise in yields to excessive government spending and budget deficits.