贝莱德表示比特币波动率降至35-40

贝莱德：比特币ETF正成为大型持有者寻求抵押品、期权访问及投资组合灵活性的金融工具

随着比特币波动率降至35至40区间，贝莱德（BlackRock）表示，比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）正日益成为大型持有者寻求抵押品、期权访问以及投资组合灵活性的金融工具。贝莱德的Jay Jacobs指出，随着市场参与度的提升，比特币的波动率已从约80压缩至35-40的水平。

从“快速致富”叙事转向“抵押品”叙事

在9月17日播出的《Pomp Podcast》采访中，贝莱德美国股票ETF主管Jay Jacobs与主持人Anthony Pompliano探讨了iShares比特币信托ETF（IBIT）的增长、加密相关期权的发展，以及贝莱德不断扩展的比特币和以太坊产品线。采访中，Pompliano指出比特币的波动率已从约80下降至35-40。Jacobs并未将这一变化归因于单一因素，而是表示ETF、期权、更深的流动性以及长期持有者基数的扩大共同促成了这一趋势。

This shift marks the transition of the market narrative from the early "get rich quick" narrative to the institutional "collateral" narrative. Large institutions usually do not use the word "collateral" easily, which represents the positioning language at the institutional level. For investors, whose wealth is held in Bitcoin, sometimes they want liquidity to buy, purchase or other expenses rather than sell their positions directly. Through the ETF structure, these shares can be used as collateral to pledge loans to lenders that receive such assets; at the same time, investors can use options to hedge risk or generate income.

It needs to be clear that IBIT itself does not issue home or car loans, and BlackRock does not guarantee that investors can borrow from their shares. Whether to accept ETF shares as collateral and the specific terms are up to the discretion of banks, brokerages or other lenders. Currently, traditional lenders have expanded in such services. For example, JPMorgan Chase has included digital assets in its secured loan framework and accepted Bitcoin as collateral.

Physical purchase and redemption mechanism lowers threshold

In terms of operating mechanisms, IBIT's structure now supports authorized participants (APs) to make physical purchases and redemptions. In July 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the physical trading process of crypto ETP, overturning the requirement that only cash redemption was allowed at the beginning of the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said at the time that physical trading could make products "cheaper and more efficient."

It should be noted that physical transactions do not mean that ordinary retail investors can go directly to BlackRock to exchange a small amount of Bitcoin for IBIT shares. Subscription and redemption activities need to be conducted by authorizing participants to use large baskets. According to BlackRock's latest data, as of September 17, the value of an IBIT creation basket was approximately US$1.73 million, containing 22.65 bitcoins. Jacobs said in a podcast that the current actual threshold is about $1.5 million, a significant drop from earlier levels.

Falling Volatility and Market Depth

Jacobs believes that there is no single explanation for the decline in Bitcoin's volatility. ETFs create more ways to gain exposure, while options provide market participants with additional tools for complex positions and risk management. He believes that a deeper pool of participants and liquidity can reduce some price fluctuations. In addition, the formation of long-term buyers is also part of BlackRock's explanation. Jacobs pointed out that more and more investors are holding Bitcoin strategically, which provides a source of demand with stability that is different from short-term traders.

Jacobs emphasized that the reduction in volatility has not changed BlackRock's view of the underlying investment characteristics of Bitcoin. Bitcoin "should benefit" at a time when investors are worried about government policies, geopolitical instability or the devaluation of fiat currencies, although these conditions may also put pressure on traditional assets. This statement only represents BlackRock's investment view and does not establish that Bitcoin will inevitably rise when stocks or bonds fall, because the correlation between various asset types changes with the market cycle.

Belek's Crypto Product Matrix: From Spot to Revenue Strategy

IBIT remains BlackRock's largest crypto ETP. As of September 17, IBIT's net assets were approximately US$59.87 billion, with 1.382 billion shares outstanding, and a management fee ratio of 0.25%. This product tracks the New York variant of the CME CF Bitcoin reference rate.

Belek's current encryption strategy is not limited to simple spot exposure, but also extends to Ethereum and related revenue products:

• Ethereum Spot and Pledge: For Ethereum, BlackRock provides ETHA for spot exposure, and iShares pledges the Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB). ETHB combines Ethereum price exposure with pledge rewards for some trust positions. As of September 10, ETHB's net assets were just over US$1 billion, the 30-day pledge yield was approximately 1.54%, and the management fee rate was 0.25%. This is the first U.S. Ethereum ETP launched by BlackRock. It began trading in March and incorporates the pledge function.
• Bitcoin revenue strategy: 针对寻求从比特币中获得收入的投资者，贝莱德推出了iShares比特币溢价收益ETF（代码：BITA，此前采访笔记中误记为BIDA）。该基金于6月上市，通过持有现货BTC和IBIT获取比特币敞口，并主要对IBIT出售看涨期权以收取权利金。贝莱德表示，该策略通常目标覆盖组合中约25%至35%的头寸。截至9月9日，其分配收益率显示为13.25%，管理费率为0.65%。需要注意的是，分配收益率可能发生变化，且并非保证回报。卖出备兑看涨期权虽然能创造月收入，但在价格大幅上涨时会限制部分上行参与空间。

人工智能：贝莱德的主题框架新支柱

访谈后半部分涉及贝莱德对人工智能（AI）的方法论。Jacobs将AI采用视为影响美国股市的宏观经济变量，主张不应仅将其视为科技板块主题，而应审视其在公用事业、电力基础设施、数据中心、半导体、模型开发商、软件和应用等全产业链的影响。

Jacobs指出，供应链各环节的时间表差异巨大。他估计，新建铜矿可能需要4至8年才能投产，而半导体制造工厂则需要约4年才能投入运营。这些时间估算旨在解释贝莱德的投资框架，而非建立商品价格或AI公司回报的预测。贝莱德提供了多种与不同基础设施部分挂钩的产品，如其主动管理型AI策略BAI、基础设施和电力敞口、数据中心房地产以及铜相关投资，展示了如何将AI供应链划分为可投资群体。

Jacobs还建议投资者关注持仓、结构、税务和市场做市安排，而不仅仅依赖产品名称。例如，BITA采用合伙制结构，因此美国税务报告可能需要接收Schedule K-1表格，而IBIT则不具备BITA的备兑收益策略。贝莱德强调，BITA的策略是主动管理的，会根据市场状况和组合定位进行调整。