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CryptoQuant称：比特币牛市显现“疲态”

2026-09-30 08:42:58

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According to a research report released by cryptocurrency research institute CryptoQuant on September 29, 2026, Bitcoin has confirmed that it has entered a bull market cycle, but its upward momentum seems to be weakening. According to CoinMarketCap data, as of the time of the report's release, Bitcoin (BTC) prices were around $83,500, having previously hit an eight-month high of $87,400.

CryptoQuant pointed out that Bitcoin closed above the 365-day moving average last week, marking the beginning of a new bull cycle. The agency's "Bitcoin Bull Market Score Index" is as high as 90 points (out of 100 points), which is in the "extremely bullish" range. Still, the report also pointed to several signs that upward momentum was fading and a correction could follow.

Profit margins compressed

CryptoQuant found that traders 'unrealized profit margins on the chain have climbed to 33%, the highest level since December 2024. This data represents the potential extent to which holders can lock in profits at current prices. The report pointed out that historically similar high profit margins often predict subsequent selling activity and downward price pressures.

On September 22, 2026, Bitcoin holders achieved a profit of 25,700 BTC, which was the largest single-day profit-taking volume recorded in 2026. CryptoQuant said the data confirmed that market participants have been actively cashing in profits as Bitcoin prices trade near recent highs.

Related report: CryptoQuant warns of structural selling of Bitcoin, concerns about the chance of a $71,500 rebound

山寨币存款激增

除了比特币之外，其他迹象也显示出抛售压力。山寨币交易所流入交易的七日累计计数飙升至 76,000 次，创下自 2025 年 10 月 17 日以来的最高水平。该日期位于比特币上一轮历史最高点后的第 11 天。在同一时间段内，向交易所存入山寨币的唯一地址数量上升至 51,000 个，同样为 2025 年 10 月以来的最高读数。

CryptoQuant 表示，此类交易所存款激增通常意味着“分销”，因为持有者通常将代币转移到交易所以意图出售。

需求在两方面放缓

比特币的需求在现货和衍生品市场双双降温。报告发现，过去 30 天内，可见的现货需求收缩了 170,000 BTC。投机性期货需求的增长——CryptoQuant 将其描述为近期价格上涨的主要驱动力——也急剧放缓，从 9 月 14 日的增加 164,000 BTC 降至 9 月 29 日的仅 16,000 BTC。

若发生回调，支撑位在哪里

CryptoQuant 概述了如果比特币价格下跌时将发挥作用的三个支撑位。第一个是 80,000 美元附近的 365 天移动平均线，其次是 71,000 美元附近的 200 天移动平均线，以及交易者链上实现价格约 67,000 美元。

报告认为，只要这些支撑位在回调期间得以维持，整体牛市趋势依然完好。CryptoQuant 将当前状况描述为一个显示疲态的年轻牛市，而非趋势反转，并引用利润空间拉伸、2026 年创纪录的获利了结、山寨币交易所流入激增以及需求冷却等因素组合，指向短期内可能出现的修正。

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