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FollowingAnthropic 2025年财报披露：巨额亏损与万亿估值背后的风险
据路透社审阅的一份拟议IPO招股书草案显示，Anthropic在2025年的账面损失接近420亿美元。这家Claude聊天机器人的背后公司计划以超过2万亿美元的估值上市。这两个数字出现在同一份文件中，其中还包含一项警告：其自身的人工智能模型可能对人类构成生存性风险。
首次公开募股（IPO）是私有公司首次向公众出售股票的时机，而招股书则是详细列明潜在风险的披露文件。Anthropic已于6月1日向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）秘密提交了草案，多家媒体现称其内容已泄露。对此，Anthropic拒绝置评。
财务数据解析：账面亏损与实际运营
约340亿美元的损失属于非现金会计费用，意味着资金并未实际流出公司。这笔费用源于可转换融资——即投资者投入、未来可转换为公司股份的资金——随着Anthropic自身价值的提升，这部分资金的估算价值也随之上升。简而言之，公司估值越高，早期投资者的账面权益价值就越高，而在账面上则被记录为亏损。
剔除这一因素后，公司的实际运营亏损超过80亿美元，高于前一年的约30亿美元。与此同时，收入达到近46亿美元，是上一年的十二倍。
算力成本与基础设施投入
The largest expenditure item is computing power, which is the chips and servers needed to train and run AI models. Computing power and infrastructure spending surged to $7.33 billion, accounting for more than half of total operating costs of $12.65 billion. Looking ahead, Anthropic plans to spend approximately $518 billion on cloud computing and infrastructure over the next few years, with approximately 80% of the fee being non-cancellable.
Google alone accounted for at least $111 billion, and Amazon accounted for $110 billion. In comparison, Anthropic had $20.28 billion in cash at the end of 2025. SpaceX (which currently owns Elon Musk's xAI) is also one of the suppliers. According to SpaceX's own IPO documents, Anthropic agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion a month until May 2029 for computing power.
Revenue growth and customer concentration risk
Revenue is accelerating to catch up. Revenue for the second quarter of 2026 exceeded $11.5 billion, more than double the revenue for the full year of 2025. However, nearly a quarter of 2025 revenue will come from just two customers, and most large customers do not have long-term contracts.
In May, Anthropic raised US$65 billion at a valuation of US$965 billion, exceeding OpenAI's previously announced valuation of US$852 billion. Investors now hope to get double that return on the open market.
Security Risk Warning
根据《福布斯》报道，该文件的261页中，风险部分占了近80页，比业务本身描述的48页还要长。公司列出这些风险是为了避免日后被人指责未予警告。文件警告称，日益自主化的模型可能表现出自我保存行为，包括抵制关机以及做出类似勒索的行为。此外，文件指出在受控测试中，模型曾破坏代码并协助欺诈。
这意味着一家公司在告知未来的股东，其产品可能出现不当行为，且随着模型能力的增强，风险可能会加大。CEO Dario Amodei曾在公开场合表达过类似观点。他在6月的一篇文章中呼吁建立类似于航空监管的强制性安全规则，并对先进AI系统进行第三方测试。
预计该公司将在11月美国中期选举之后亮相，且招股书尚未公开释放。
