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XRP XRP investor sentiment has cooled significantly, and Sanitation suggests that extreme pessimism may constitute a reverse signal.
An interesting signal about XRP investor sentiment has emerged. According to Sanitation, XRP's ratio of bullish to bearish comments on social media fell to 0.67 on October 1, the lowest level since August 17. This data shows that the volume of bearish views has exceeded the share of bullish views, which occurred when XRP prices were hovering around $1.49. Sanitation pointed out that extreme pessimism in the market can in some cases be seen as a reverse indicator.
Investor sentiment drops sharply
Data from blockchain analysis platform Sanitation shows that negative comments about XRP have increased significantly on social platforms such as X, Reddit and Telegram. As of October 1, XRP's call/bear ratio fell to 0.67, hitting a low since August 17. This ratio is below 1, indicating that comments on bearish expectations are more shared than bullish expectations. Therefore, a level of 0.67 reflects that market participants have become highly cautious about short-term prospects.
Sanitation does not directly interpret this extreme pessimism as a sell signal. In fact, historical experience shows that when fear and pessimism dominate rather than excessive optimism on social media, conditions can be created for markets to move in the opposite direction.
Price Trend and Chain Activity
XRP价格在9月下旬一度升至约1.60美元后失去动能。10月1日，该代币以约1.49美元收盘，并在10月初在1.47至1.53美元的狭窄区间内波动。值得注意的是，当XRP价格达到1.60美元时，网络活跃度也出现了显著增长。仅一天内，XRP Ledger上就有超过11,000个新账户被激活，这表明投资者兴趣曾短暂升温，但随后价格动能减弱。
同期，市场密切关注Ripple计划解锁10亿枚XRP的进展。这一事件引发了对未来短期供应压力的讨论，同时衍生品市场的一些指标也显示出卖压增加的迹象。
生态系统基本面持续向好
尽管价格和社会情绪疲软，但XRP生态系统的基本面指标却呈现出不同的图景。在Evernorth合并相关的投票中，价值4.73亿枚XRP的国库协议获得了94%的持有人支持。此外，基于x402标准的AI支付处理在XRP Ledger上已突破1000万次，彰显了网络使用的增长。
Ripple的稳定币项目RLUSD市值也达到了约25亿美元，成为生态系统中备受瞩目的发展之一。这表明，在价格和社交情绪走弱的背景下，XRP的核心技术采用和治理参与度仍在稳步提升。
综合评估
XRP社会情绪指数跌至8月17日以来的最低点，明确显示投资者对短期价格走势的悲观情绪显著加剧。然而，正如Santiment所强调的，极端的负面市场心理并不必然意味着价格将持续下跌。短期内，市场将密切观察XRP能否守住1.47美元附近的支撑位。
如果社会情绪比率重新接近1，且价格能回升至9月底的水平，市场看法可能会发生转变。反之，若负面情绪持续且卖压加重，XRP价格的波动性可能会进一步上升。
