The trading volume of altcoin reaches 4 times that of Bitcoin, and doctors withdraw from altcoin aft

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山寨币现货交易量达比特币四倍，分析师“Doctor Profit”获利离场

目前，山寨币的现货交易量已达到比特币的四倍。对于这一现象，至少有一位知名交易员认为这并非买入的理由，而是离场的信号。在X平台（原推特）上备受关注的分析师“Doctor Profit”表示，鉴于当前市场过热，他对买入山寨币毫无兴趣。他此前以73%的利润卖出了ONDO代币，并以较小的收益清仓了HBAR。

据Cryptopotato报道，随着山寨币现货交易量大幅超越比特币，“Doctor Profit”不仅兑现了ONDO的高额利润并平仓HBAR，还建立了比特币空头头寸，入场价格为86,200美元。与此同时，包含以太坊在内的山寨币总市值指数（Total2）自2026年6月以来已吸纳超过3,710亿美元的资金流入，增幅达45%。

关键事实与市场动态

交易量激增与杠杆上升： 根据Cryptopotato的数据，山寨币现货交易量已达比特币的四倍，且整个市场的杠杆水平正在上升。
分析师操作策略："Doctor Profit" sold ONDO at a profit of 73% and closed HBAR at a small gain, while continuing to watch XRP and wait for a better entry price. He placed a short position in Bitcoin of $86,200 and added additional short orders in the range of $86,500 to $89,500. Although the overall outlook remains bullish, he pointed out that a correction could move closer to $79,000 near the 50-week moving average.
Significant capital inflows: Analyst Darkfost reported that the total market value of altcoins (Total2), which includes Ethereum, has absorbed more than US$371 billion in capital inflows since June 2026, a 45% increase in just a few months.
Exchange deposit data: Exchange data shows a wave of deposits from Coinbase and Binance. According to Cryptopotato statistics, Binance has more than 22,700 altcoin deposit transactions in a single week, Coinbase has 8,300 transactions, and other platforms have about 32,000 transactions.

Kalshi's early termination of incentive plan has attracted attention

Meanwhile, CryptoSlate reported that it predicts that market operator Kalshi has ended a long-running trading volume incentive plan nearly a year early. This change coincides with increasing attention to the quality of trading activities in crypto-related venues. The two reports point to the same question from different angles: Record participation and rising leverage are forcing market participants and platform operators to ask what the real driving forces behind these numbers are.

According to CryptoSlate's report on September 30, Kalshi stated in a September 28 filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that its "Volume Incentive Program" will expire on or after October 13, well before the original end date of October 1, 2027. The document does not link early termination to any concerns about trading patterns, and under the terms, Kalshi can terminate the program at his discretion.

Driver Analysis: Market Internal and Platform Mechanisms

Cryptopotato's report focuses on the internal structure of the market. Darkfost pointed out that there has been a major shift on Binance, with 87% of listed coins trading above its 200-day moving average, compared with the proportion still below the trend line in August. Darkfost also mentioned that the Total2 RSI indicator is forming a bearish divergence, suggesting that momentum may begin to cool.

CryptoSlate's report raises the issue of parallelism from a platform perspective. Kalshi is replacing his extensive trading volume plan with a new "deposit and trading reward incentive plan." According to the CFTC filing, the new plan was received on September 25, with the earliest effective date set at September 28. Although the two documents do not formally describe as alternative relationships, they can overlap until the old plan ends.

Structural differences are crucial. The old plan allowed Kalshi to designate qualified markets and set up a fixed reward pool, with traders receiving shares based on their proportion of qualified trading volume, with a cap of half a cent per contract. Perpetual contracts are eligible and are exempt from the plan's normal qualifying price range of 3 cents to 97 cents. The new framework provides a time-limited promotion lasting from 3 to 90 days, which can be targeted to groups such as account age, funding status, past trading activity, inactivity status, geographical location, and past participation in specific contract categories.

Individual promotions can earn up to US$2,500 per person, with a maximum total reward of US$5,000 per person throughout the plan's two-year life cycle. The document also states that transactions under investigation for suspected self-matching, laundering transactions, pre-arranging transactions or other prohibited behavior will be excluded from promotional rewards, and that Kalshi's monitors will implement stricter monitoring of participants receiving incentives.

Background and timing considerations

Timing is worth noting. According to CryptoSlate, the CFTC reportedly reviewed activity after researchers identified duplicate transactions around fixed amounts, including approximately $5,500 of the Ethereum perpetual contract. Kalshi said it was not under investigation and refuted allegations of laundering transactions, attributing the duplicate transactions to market makers placing fixed-size quotes that were repeatedly traded by other traders. The document did not explain why the plan ended early.

Market Significance

For traders, Cryptopotato's report is a signal about leverage and positions. When a sector's spot trading volume reaches four times the market benchmark asset and 87% of Binance's listed coins are on its 200-day moving average, it indicates that the public has entered. "Doctor Profit"'s response-taking ONDO profits, shutting down HBAR, staying on the sidelines-reflects the view that these conditions often signal a shock purge rather than an infinite extension. The Bitcoin short he established at $86,200 directly expressed this view.

Kalshi's story is important for another reason. Kalshi broke trading records multiple times in September. DeFiRate's data shows that for the week ended September 27, its processing volume was US$3.24 billion, and its weekly trading volume in seven days was US$15.66 billion, accounting for nearly 80% of the tracking and forecast market share. These are real numbers, but the shift from extensive trading volume subsidies to targeted deposits and trading rewards has changed how much activity is earned through direct payments-a difference that investors must weigh as Kalshi pursues a reported $40 billion valuation.

Follow-up Focus

On the market side, what needs to be paid attention to is the pullback point pointed out by "Doctor Profit": that is, a pullback towards US$79,000 near the 50-week moving average. He cited bearish signals from RSI, MACD/PPO and MFI, and noted that ADX showed weakening trend strength. A break below that level will test whether Darkfost's recorded influx of money into altcoins is a persistent demand or a liquidity grab.

在平台方面，需要关注的日期是10月13日，这是Kalshi交易量激励计划最早可能结束的时间点。一旦广泛的补贴取消，而新的定向促销逐步启动，其交易质量和交易量将如何维持，将是衡量Kalshi据报道正在接触的投资者的关键指标。