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BTC 美联储今日利率决议：加息预期高企，市场已做好准备
美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）将于美东时间下午2点公布最新的利率决定，而市场对此早已形成共识。根据芝商所（CME）FedWatch工具的数据显示，加息25个基点至3.75%-4.00%区间的概率高达92.3%。若今日实施加息，这将是自2023年以来的首次加息。
一个月前，市场的预测与此截然不同。在杰克逊霍尔年会前夕，约有36%的市场参与者预期会加息。然而，美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）发表言论称通胀并未“实质性改善”，这一表态在短短数日内将加息的概率推升至50%以上。随后发布的8月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告终结了所有争议，使得加息预期急剧飙升。
8月通胀数据强劲，能源价格成为主要推手
进入8月时，核心CPI的预期环比增长为0.2%，但实际上升至0.3%。与此同时，整体通胀率同比持平于3.4%，距离美联储2%的目标仍相去甚远。根据AAA燃油价格数据，全国平均汽油价格在一年内大幅上涨了约36%。由于伊朗冲突持续导致霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻，原油价格重新回到100美元上方。
随后公布的劳动力数据进一步打消了政策制定者观望的借口。8月非农就业人口增加16.2万人，劳工统计局数据显示失业率为4.1%。
Cryptocurrency market is under pressure ahead of schedule
The total crypto market value fell by approximately 3.3% on Tuesday, September 15. Bitcoin fell below the $76,000 mark, setting its lowest level since August 21. Long positions worth more than $545 million were liquidated during yesterday's decline, Coinglass data showed.
Interest rate expectations are only one reason for this correction. (Note: The original text mentions background information such as the failure of the Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act and the outflow of cash Bitcoin ETF funds. Details of specific political events are omitted here to focus on the macro impact) Position adjustments are often highly consistent. Leverage is usually cleared before, rather than when, the event occurs, which means that if the announcement results are unfavorable, there will be relatively little pressure to force a sell.
Interest rate hikes have been priced, volatility lies in other factors
Given that the 25 basis point rate hikes have been fully priced, the decision itself will hardly trigger a drastic reaction. What really affects the price is the content of the document that follows. An updated dot chart and summary of economic forecasts (SEP) will indicate whether the adjustment is a one-time response to an energy shock or the beginning of a new tightening cycle. The number of negative votes is equally important. The unanimous rate increase is very different in signaling sense from the 9 - 3 split, in which some directors opposed the inflation reading.
随后，沃什主席将于美东时间下午2:30发言。交易员将重点关注一个关键问题：12月是否还有加息空间。任何暗示美联储在年底前可能再次加息的迹象，其打击风险资产的程度都将远超今天的变动。
70,000美元是关键观察点位
比特币接下来的真正考验位于70,000美元。该点位的重要性不仅在于整数关口，还因为它与该周期内密集的价格活动区域重叠，并与200日均线相符。在过去两年中，这条均线多次在阻力位和支撑位之间转换。
若能守住该点位，当前的结构将保持完整。若日线收盘跌破该点位，且交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流出仍在继续，则下方可能出现更宽幅度的下跌空间。
