Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares plummet 8%: Is it excessive selling or is a real crisis looming?

Core Points

• The shadow of patent expiration triggers investor anxiety

• CagriSema faces investor scrutiny

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Novo Nordisk shares plunged nearly 8% on Monday, its biggest one-day decline since February. CEO Mike Doustdar announced that the company is exploring acquisition opportunities to fill gaps in its product pipeline, particularly in the cardiovascular therapy space.

Patents for two blockbuster drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, will expire in the early 2030s, and these two drugs account for approximately 75% of the company's total revenue. The Danish pharmaceutical giant aims to launch more than five blockbuster drugs by 2030 and aims to generate more than $23 billion in new revenue by 2035.

Novo Nordisk has bought back Class B shares worth DKK 9.63 billion as part of its DKK 15 billion share repurchase program.

Novo Nordisk shares plummet

Novo Nordisk shares plunged nearly 8% on Monday after failing to reassure investors about its future drug pipeline at a Capital Markets Day presentation. The stock traded at $39.80, down $3.44, and continued to slide slightly in Tuesday trading. Novo Nordisk A/S, NVO

This sharp decline reflects investor sentiment that Novo Nordisk's announced goals have been expected by the market rather than representing upward surprises.

首席执行官 Mike Doustdar 直接回应了市场的负面反应。他在接受 CNBC“Squawk Box Europe”采访时表示：“我们谈到了公司的多元化，但市场的反应告诉我，仍有工作需要去做，以说服部分投资者。”

Doustdar 也承认公司与投资者之间存在信任赤字。“我们过去几年学到的是，过度承诺和交付不足会迅速失去信任，”他向彭博电视台解释道。

尽管宣布了雄心勃勃的目标，包括到 2030 年推出超过五种重磅疗法，并在 2035 年前产生超过 230 亿美元的新增收入，但市场仍持怀疑态度。

即将到来的专利到期驱动投资者焦虑

根本问题在于即将到来的专利悬崖。Wegovy 和 Ozempic 共同产生了诺和诺德约四分之三的总收入，这两类药物将在 2030 年代初在美国和欧洲等主要市场失去专利保护。

这为开发能够抵消巨额收入损失的强大产品管线创造了紧迫的时间表。Doustdar 透露，公司正在积极寻求战略收购，以解决治疗领域的空白，特别强调与肥胖症互补的领域，如心血管疾病。

This focus on the cardiovascular field was further strengthened after Novo Nordisk's experimental heart drug ziltivekimab failed to prove to reduce the risk of a heart attack in clinical trials this year. Doustdar said the company is currently evaluating whether external acquisitions are needed to fill the treatment gap.

He observes that attractive acquisition opportunities for obesity itself remain scarce, suggesting that M & A activity will be concentrated in complementary therapeutic areas.

CagriSema comes under scrutiny by investors

CagriSema is Novo Nordisk's next-generation obesity treatment candidate and has become the focus of investors 'attention. Doustdar expressed confidence that it will be one of the company's most successful product launches next year.

Despite this, expectations have been lowered. Direct comparison trials earlier this year showed that the drug was not as good as Eli Lilly's Zepbound in terms of weight loss, complicating Novo Nordisk's commercial positioning strategy.

Regarding capital allocation, Novo Nordisk maintained the momentum of its share repurchase program. During the period from September 14 to 18, 2026, the company acquired an additional 1.09 million Class B shares. Since February, the total repurchase volume has reached 34.17 million Class B shares worth DKr 9.63 billion, moving towards a plan to authorize DKr 15 billion.

The current analyst consensus rating lists NVO as "hold" with a price target of $47.00. The company's market value is approximately US$191.7 billion.

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