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BTC Bitcoin broke through the US$86,000 mark, hitting an eight-month high
On Monday, Bitcoin prices broke through US$86,000, setting an eight-month high. The rise was mainly driven by short-term short squeeze, strong ETF inflows and improved risk appetite ahead of the September 24 China-US summit. However, the current rally has yet to show the signs of over-leveraged speculation that normally marks the top of the market, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.
Derivatives markets show divergence
Glassnode tracks on-chain and derivatives data in the crypto market and pointed out on September 21 that long leverage in the options market is "slowly rebuilding" as Bitcoin hits $86,000. The ratio of open interest, which measures the relative number of puts and Calls, is on an upward trend, but the company said it is still "far from the fanatical levels we see near the top of Bitcoin."
A chart released by Glassnode shows that the two derivatives markets are operating at different speeds. In the options market, traders are gradually increasing their bullish exposure. The seven-day average volume put/call ratio has dropped to around 0.6, meaning that call options have a significant lead over put options, indicating that traders are laying out for further gains.
In contrast, the situation appears calmer in the perpetual futures market, where traders use leverage to bet on short-term price fluctuations. Glassnode pointed out that the regular payments, known as the funding rate, used to keep perpetual contract prices in line with spot prices, are still below neutral levels.
当资金费率居高不下时，通常表明多头仓位拥挤，交易者愿意支付溢价以持有头寸。但目前这种情况并未发生。
缺乏过度投机的反弹
这种分歧至关重要，因为最危险的反弹往往是由大量杠杆投机驱动的。当资金费率飙升且看跌/看涨比率崩溃时，通常意味着市场依靠借来的信心运行，反转可能会迅速展开。
与此形成对比的是，比特币目前的走势似乎更多由现货需求和空头回补驱动，而非激进的杠杆建仓。截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为86,489美元。
目前，比特币价格较2025年10月创下的126,000美元历史最高点仍低约32%。CoinGlass恐惧与贪婪指数位于79，处于明确的“贪婪”区间，但距离通常预示情绪过热的“极度贪婪”区域仍有差距。
