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FollowingKalshi调查聚焦交易时机与潜在赔付
Kalshi平台正在对针对凯蒂·扎卡里亚（Katie Zacharia）的几笔投注进行调查，重点审查这些交易是否在其被正式任命为白宫新闻秘书之前发生。据《华尔街日报》报道，至少有三笔小额赌注可能带来巨额回报。
在新闻媒体于周五确认扎卡里亚成为唐纳德·特朗普总统下一任新闻秘书之前，有交易者押注了她获胜的可能性。此前，市场给予她获得该职位的概率仅为1%左右。Kalshi已确认正在进行内部调查，但尚未公开说明涉事账户的具体情况，也未证实交易者是否利用了内幕信息或违反了平台规则。
调查细节与赔付分析
此次调查的核心涉及一笔周四晚间的交易以及周五新闻报道发布前不久的两笔交易。具体数据如下：
- 一笔价值约19美元的头寸，预期赔付金额为1,896美元。
- 另外两笔分别价值约74美元和80美元的交易，于周五下午1点41分下注。这两笔交易的预期赔付金额分别为3,689美元和4,023美元。
It is worth noting that the above figures represent potential settlement claims rather than realized net profits, and are not deducted for any handling fees. Although the rate of return is extremely high, this only indicates the potential gains if the results are in line with expectations, and is not directly equivalent to illegal gains. Currently publicly visible transaction records only show the time and amount, and cannot independently prove the trader's intellectual background or subjective intention.
Trump subsequently announced Zakaria's appointment through the "Truth Social" platform. She will replace Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who left earlier this year. The White House quoted Trump's appointment statement in response to inquiries about the investigation. At present, there are no public investigation results linking these accounts to officials involved in the appointment, and the size and timing of the compensation amount cannot in itself directly qualify as violations.
Political gambling faces stricter surveillance and regulation
Kalshi's investigation follows another law enforcement case. In August, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reached a settlement over former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez using advance access to information on the president's speech to trade. Regulators ordered Perez to refund $107,539.02 in profits and pay a civil fine of $65,000, along with a three-year trading ban.
The precedent provided context for Kalshi's investigation but did not determine its final outcome. Currently, relevant traders targeting Zakaria have not been publicly shown to have similar access to inside information.
Industry compliance measures upgrade
As censorship of the forecast market intensifies, platforms are also strengthening internal controls. In June, Kalshi introduced an employee disclosure system for high-risk markets, such as markets where insider trading or manipulation risks exist. The company reported that in the first quarter it conducted more than 150 investigations, referred more than 20 cases to law enforcement, imposed five disciplinary actions, and blocked more than 100 potential insider trading cases through screening tools.
In addition, Kalshi has updated its reporting mechanism to allow users to directly submit clues of suspected violations to the monitoring team through various markets. Meanwhile, James Comer, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, launched a congressional investigation in May into predictive market security measures, including Kalshi and Polymarket, requiring platforms to provide information on identity verification systems and suspicious activity detection systems. Currently, the committee has received nearly 1,000 documents and five briefings from representatives of the two platforms.
