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BTC Bitcoin bullish momentum: A new stage is coming?
The Bitcoin market is undergoing significant changes, and discussions continue to heat up about institutional capital's potential to break the traditional four-year cycle. The latest on-chain data shows a different picture-CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Cycle Momentum indicator has returned to positive territory after eight months of silence. From a historical perspective, this often coincides with the end of the long-term downward cycle, reigniting the optimism of market participants.
Bullish signals return
To confirm a sustainable breakthrough, the indicator needs to remain at a higher level in the coming weeks. The recent surge in prices from $62000 to $81000 has injected vitality into the sleepy market, with trading activity returning to activity after a long period of stagnation. This price move has sparked widespread interest and optimism, suggesting that bullish momentum may be returning.
Comparing the current recovery with previous cycles finds that short-term traders and panicked retail investors are the main sellers. Long-term holders, especially giant whales, which hold large amounts of bitcoin, are strengthening their portfolios. Wallets holding at least 100 bitcoins have increased their holdings by about 60,000 BTC, while small-scale wallets have sold a total of about 47,000 BTC.
It is worth noting that some large households are using assets as collateral rather than selling them directly. Such credit activity on professional platforms increased by 18%, indicating that some investors prefer secured financing rather than outright selling during market downturns.
Are capital inflows sufficient?
The inflow of new capital into the market is supported by technical indicators. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded its strongest weekly inflow in ten weeks. In addition, more than $470 million of USDC (stablecoins pegged to the dollar) was transferred to mainstream exchanges, enhancing liquidity.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs track Bitcoin prices directly and trade on traditional exchanges. The USDC plays the role of cash equivalent in the crypto ecosystem, maintaining a 1:1 anchor with the U.S. dollar. Using Bitcoin as collateral for loans rather than being sold directly suggests solid but cautious bullish sentiment among major holders.
Market expectations are becoming more rational, and forecasts show that prices may enter a consolidation stage around the current US$78000. Bitcoin is in neutral territory, suggesting it needs a breathing period before rising significantly further. In the recent rally, retail investors have chosen to make quick profits, creating temporary resistance. But key support is locked at $69000, which coincides with the average cost line for short-term investors.
As long as Bitcoin stays above this level, the broader bullish trend may regain momentum. The current on-chain indicators and capital flows highlight that market uncertainty still exists, but long-term investors 'stance remains firm.
