Bitcoin fell 1.22% to US$77,323, and the golden cross signal may be confirmed in September

Bitcoin fell back to US$77,323, macro pressure intensified market volatility

Bitcoin fell 1.22% today to close at US$77,323, failing to continue last week's rise above US$80,000. Broader financial markets also suffered a sell-off, with the S & P 500 down 0.59%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index closing down nearly 1%. The correction in major asset classes was mainly triggered by higher-than-expected producer price index (PPI) data in August, which has heightened concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rates or even raise interest rates in the coming months.

Market pressures and macro impacts

Due to continued tensions between the United States and Iran, oil prices climbed above US$100 per barrel, and the sell-off of risky assets further intensified. That put additional pressure on inflation indicators, pushing U.S. Treasury yields to multi-year highs and prompting investors to shift to safer assets. Nearly 85% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation have fallen in the past 24 hours, reflecting investors 'general caution ahead of the release of key macroeconomic data.

As markets focus on Friday's consumer price index (CPI) data and the Federal Reserve's scheduled September 15 meeting, investors remain highly vigilant about potential volatility. The return of inflation fears has shaken traditional stock and crypto markets, setting the stage for possible turmoil this week.

Technology Outlook: Golden fork is approaching

Although prices have fallen back today, from a broader perspective, Bitcoin's recent price trend remains solid. Bitcoin opened at $78,282, hitting an intraday high of $78,526, then retreated to a low of $76,651 before stabilizing. Today's closing price has eased significantly from last week's breakthrough of $80,000, but Bitcoin is still trading well above its August low of nearly $64,000.

Technical analysis showed that the average directionality index (ADX) was 45.8, indicating a strong underlying trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55.6, which traders typically view as a confirmation of bullish momentum and has not entered overbought territory. These indicators suggest that despite the current weak short-term trend, the overall upward trend may not be over yet.

Currently, Bitcoin's 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is still slightly lower than its 200-day EMA, keeping the technical side short. However, the gap between the two is narrowing. If no major negative surprises occur, it is expected that the "golden cross"-that is, the situation where the 50th EMA crosses the 200th EMA-will occur around September 11.

This will be the first time that Bitcoin has formed a gold fork since the "dead fork" appeared in November 2025, and the previous dead fork marked the beginning of the last sharp decline of the cryptocurrency.

Concept Analysis: Golden Cross

Golden Cross: A form of technical analysis that is formed when the short-term moving average (such as the 50-day EMA) crosses the long-term moving average (such as the 200-day EMA). Traders typically view this event as a bullish signal for future price increases.

In addition, the "Squeeze Momentum Indicator" has also been activated. This is a technical indicator used to predict possible periods of high volatility after the price compression phase. If Bitcoin's underlying trend remains solid, analysts expect this to accelerate price increases.

Institutional capital flows and prospects

In the past three weeks, U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net inflow of US$3.8 billion. The total net assets of these products now reach US$101.3 billion. These data suggest that institutional demand continues even when macro pressures lead to consolidation in Bitcoin prices.

Despite the growing enthusiasm surrounding the upcoming golden fork, market experts are calling for caution. This indicator is lagging and reflects past price movements, with historical precedents showing that the golden fork may sometimes reverse within a few weeks of its appearance. As key CPI data and the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions approach, changes in macroeconomic conditions may play a greater role in determining Bitcoin's next major trend.