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BTC In-depth analysis of the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Pattern: Key Support Levels and Potential Risks
Benjamin Cowen, a well-known analyst in the cryptocurrency field, compares the bull and bear market scenarios of Bitcoin (BTC) in detail in a newly released analysis video. Through a comprehensive review of on-chain data, technical indicators, market sentiment and cyclical historical data, Cowen pointed out that the current market picture shows a strong signal that supports both long and short positions.
Bullish signals: Initial signs of the bottom of the cycle
While elaborating on the bullish scenario, Cowan emphasized that Bitcoin has released multiple signals pointing to the bottom of the cycle. In particular, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to historical lows, the monthly RSI significantly cooled, and the recent "golden cross" have enhanced the bullish outlook. In addition, the cumulative level of long-term holders (LTH) hovers near historical cycle lows and is also one of the key factors supporting the formation of potential bottoms.
Caution: Bear market risks have not been completely eliminated
On the other hand, Cowan added that historical data supporting bear market scenarios have not been completely erased. He pointed out that key on-chain indicators such as the Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-Score and the market cap/hot money ratio have not yet fallen to the extremely low levels seen in past bear market lows. Furthermore, Bitcoin prices have not yet fallen below the lows of the current cycle, and whale activity is still weak compared to past lows, indicating that downside risks have not been completely ruled out.
Key watershed: 50-week moving average determines the future direction
Cowan said the 50-week moving average will play a key role in determining the future direction of the market. He noted that if weekly closing prices stabilize above that level, currently around $80,000, it would consolidate the bull market scenario. But he warned that a rejection at this position could cause prices to look for new lows in the fourth quarter (October or November). In a deeper pullback scenario, Bitcoin could test a price level of $53,000; in extreme cases, it could hit a range of $37,000 to $38,000. Analysts added that these sharp declines are not major scenarios, but risk scenarios that need to be monitored closely.
The above content does not constitute investment advice.
