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微软（MSFT）股价在Copilot改版及分析师看好后飙升4%

2026-09-26 00:53:01

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Microsoft (MSFT) shares rose 3.7% to $516.50 after announcing the fully redesigned Copilot AI experience.
The updated platform integrates Chat features, Office applications, code creation tools, and launches Autopilot, an independent AI agent.
On September 23, Stifel upgraded Microsoft's rating to "Buy" based on strong fourth-quarter fiscal results.
Oppenheimer raised its price target to $570 from $515, implying a potential increase of about 14%.
Azure cloud business growth may reach 46% this quarter and is expected to climb to 50% in subsequent periods.

Insights brought by Oppenheimer's visit to Microsoft's headquarters

Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz visited Microsoft's corporate campus and his confidence was further strengthened. On September 22, he raised his target price from $515 to $570, while maintaining his recommended rating of "outperform".

The revised target price is relative to the stock's September 21 closing price of US$501.61, representing approximately 14% appreciation potential. Schwartz said management's outlook is optimistic, highlighting emerging agent capabilities and strong customer interest.

His analysis predicts Azure to achieve constant monetary growth of approximately 46% in the current quarter, with momentum likely to move towards 50% in the subsequent period. These forecasts exceed Microsoft's internal guidance expectations by about 45%.

Schwartz 在其研究评论中指出，企业正逐渐选择微软作为其主要的人工智能基础设施提供商。一旦组织围绕特定的人工智能供应商整合其运营，迁移将变得既昂贵又复杂。

支持看涨观点的财务指标

微软的云部门近期表现令人印象深刻。Azure 及相关云服务收入在第四财季增长了 43%。

Azure 收入在 2026 财年也突破了 1000 亿美元大关，标志着公司的里程碑式成就。这一成就伴随着投资水平的提升，因为第四财季的资本支出激增 70%，达到 410 亿美元。

微软计划 2026 年的资本投资约为 1750 亿美元。这种巨额支出引起了一些股东的担忧，他们观察到今年该股票的表现落后于更广泛的市场。

Schwartz 认为资本配置正变得更加一致。他的分析表明，运营改善和严格的资本管理正在带来更可预测的资本支出模式和有利的自由现金流生成。

根据 TipRanks 数据，Oppenheimer 更新的 570 美元目标价与华尔街共识的 571.51 美元非常接近。其他金融机构也制定了各自的预测。美国银行在 9 月初设定了 600 美元的目标价，而摩根士丹利在 6 月维持了 650 美元的目标价。

Schwartz 还指出了潜在的逆风。他强调了人工智能驱动的市场颠覆以及 2026 年下半年企业技术采购加速，这些挑战可能会减缓 Azure 和 Microsoft 365 在 2027 年进入时的扩张速度。

加速购买是指公司在 2026 年底加快软件和云基础设施收购，这可能导致 2027 年初需要降低产能，从而压缩增长指标，尽管商业基本面依然稳健。

微软即将发布的季度业绩预计将在 10 月下旬公布。市场参与者将密切关注 Azure 增长是否超过 45% 的指导预期并接近 Schwartz 预测的 46% 水平。

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