Bitcoin hits the best 10 consecutive days of gains in 2026, but traders remain skeptical

Bitcoin surged more than 20% this week, but trader sentiment was unusually cold

Bitcoin surged more than 20% last week, hitting US$81,255 at one point, before falling back to US$78,026 today, down about 1% in the past 24 hours. The overall cryptocurrency market fell roughly the same. What happened? People took profits after a 28% jump in August. Leveraged bets were subsequently hit hard, and a price correction led to the liquidation of long positions of more than $300 million.

However, although Bitcoin prices rose to a three-month high, traders did not show the excitement normally expected in such a strong rally.

Bitcoin prices rise, but crowd sentiment turns negative

Sanitation's data reveals why some traders are unmoved. Bitcoin rose from $62,800 on August 16 to $78,900 on August 26, rising 25% in ten days, setting the best ten-day gain this year.

But oddly enough, just as prices peaked, market sentiment suddenly turned cold. On August 26, the weighted sentiment score fell to-0.023, turning negative for the first time since the rally started. For comparison, the seven-day average remained at +0.009, while it was still +0.020 the day before (August 25). So while Bitcoin continues to climb, people have become more pessimistic.

This is usually not common. Among this round of gains, the strongest sentiment reading came on August 19, reaching +0.054, when news emerged that the U.S. Treasury would expand the scale of some long-term bond repurchases.

Normally, a 25% rise in the price of bitcoin generates strong optimism on crypto social media. But this time it didn't happen. Prices are rising, but emotions remain restrained.

What the Sand Bitcoin chart reveals

This chart clearly demonstrates this divergence. The green line tracks Bitcoin prices, climbing from approximately US$58,000 -60,000 at the end of July to approximately US$79,000 on August 26. The biggest increase occurred after August 19, when Bitcoin broke through and eventually rose to above $80,000.

Bitcoin rose about 25% in ten days and was close to its high. But the public is still not buying it. Prices rose from approximately US$62,800 on August 16 to approximately US$78,900 on August 26, the strongest ten-day rally this year. The weighted sentiment turned negative again today, at approximately-0.023,…pic.twitter.com/S9IEvczKY-Sanitation Intelligence (@SantimentData) August 26, 2026

The bar chart below the chart tracks the weighted sentiment. Green bars represent positive emotions and red bars represent negative emotions. The maximum positive reading occurred around August 19, at +0.054. Since then, sentiment has waned even as Bitcoin prices continue to rise. By August 26, the reading had dropped to-0.023.

This is the key point of Sand's analysis: Bitcoin buyers have driven up prices, but the broader group has not fallen into fanaticism.

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ETF flows are becoming increasingly important to Bitcoin

Aixbt further deepens this view. His view is that the future upside for Bitcoin depends more on the continued inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs than on the Ministry of Finance's repurchase plan. Further, Bitcoin's rise relies more on the continued flow of ETF funds than on the Treasury's repurchase cap. The Ministry of Finance doubled the repurchase limit of long-term bonds, yields fell, and the spot Bitcoin ETF attracted US$517 million. Later, Bitcoin exceeded US$75,000, and short positions were forced to cover US$1.67 billion. Long-term yields have since recovered most of their losses. -- Aixbt (@aixbt_agent) August 26, 2026

The Ministry of Finance's announcement created a more favorable macro background for risky assets, but part of Bitcoin's rise also stems from forced adjustments in positions. When the bitcoin price exceeded US$75,000, short positions were forced to liquidate, and aixbt estimated that the amount of clearing these short positions reached US$1.67 billion.

This kind of buying cannot continue indefinitely. Once the short positions are cleared, the market needs new buyers to push bitcoin prices higher. ETF flow is one way to measure this demand.

Bitcoin ETF demand faces critical test

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted US$314.37 million on August 25, continuing net inflows for seven consecutive trading days. Inflows in August have now reached US$3.03 billion, only US$390 million below the record set in October 2025.

This provides a stronger source of real demand for Bitcoin prices than simply short covering. BlackRock's IBIT contributed approximately $284.4 million on August 25, accounting for approximately 90.5% of total Bitcoin ETF inflows that day. BlackRock also lowered IBIT's physical subscription and redemption threshold from $25 million to $1 million. The mechanism allows eligible investors to directly exchange Bitcoin for ETF shares without first selling Bitcoin for cash.

This does not guarantee additional buying, but makes the structure more accessible to a wider group of qualified institutional investors.

Where will Bitcoin prices go next?

The next focus will be on the Jackson Hole meeting on August 28. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh will deliver a speech. Everyone will listen carefully to his views on inflation, interest rates and the trend of the economy.

If he is optimistic, the price of Bitcoin may exceed US$82,800. If this level is held as a new support level, the next target could be $90,000, then $98,300. Compared with the current price of about $79,180, this has about 24% room to increase.

But if Washi throws cold water and $82,800 poses resistance, Bitcoin may fall back to $78,000. If we hold the bottom, we may see prices fluctuate between $76,000 and $82,800 until new factors break the deadlock.

The bearish scenario includes hawkish rhetoric combined with warming inflation data. A break below the US$74,000 -75,000 range could expose US$62,200, and if this support falls, US$59,000 would also become possible.

At present, the Bitcoin price is supported by ETF capital flows, which is enough to maintain its upward trend. The bigger question is whether these buyers can take over the baton once the forced buying caused by short liquidations recedes.

FAQs

What is the Bitcoin price forecast after the Jackson Hole meeting? If Bitcoin breaks through and closes above $82,800, the next targets are $90,000 and $98,300. If rejected, the price could fall back to around $78,000; a break below the $74,000 -75,000 range could expose $62,200.

Why is Bitcoin rising while traders are in negative mood? Despite the negative weighted sentiment, Bitcoin still rose by about 25% in ten days. Strong inflows of spot bitcoin ETFs and forced purchases caused by short liquidations supported bitcoin prices despite limited public optimism.

Are Bitcoin ETFs still buying? Yes. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of US$314.37 million on August 25, extending seven consecutive days of net inflow. Inflows in August reached US$3.03 billion, making ETF demand an important factor in Bitcoin prices.