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BTC Bitcoin entered a "dismal September" after recording its best August performance since 2017.
Bitcoin rose 25% in August, setting its strongest monthly performance since November 2024. It is also the strongest August market since 2017. However, September started poorly, with Bitcoin falling below $77,000.
September has been the worst performing month for Bitcoin on average since 2013, with an average decline of nearly 3%, and only five of the thirteen years have recorded positive gains. However, it is worth noting that Bitcoin closed up in September in the past three years.
But there is indeed real resistance at present. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh highlighted the issue of high inflation in his Jackson Hole speech last Friday, and the bond market reacted strongly. Sovereign bond yields rose to a cyclical high, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hitting 4.784%. The market currently predicts that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16 is 66%, and it is possible to raise interest rates again before the end of the year. The continued U.S. crackdown on Iran pushed WTI crude oil higher to US$88 a barrel, up 2% on the day and the highest level since late July.
Raising interest rates will tighten the financial environment and push the US dollar higher, which poses a regular negative for risky assets. Bad for Bitcoin and gold (and traditional markets), which also had negative average returns in September.
Overall, September will be a game of long and short forces. Can ETF inflows, decentralized asset trusts (DAT) inflows and the booming on-chain crypto market be tailwinds to push Bitcoin up? Or will headwinds such as war, rising oil prices, inflation and potential interest rate hikes end the rally?
The answer will be revealed soon. Please mark September 16 on the calendar-when the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be held and interest rate decisions will be announced. This meeting is likely to set the direction for the macro tone for the rest of the year...
