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BTC Bitcoin's recent rebound sparks bull market discussions
Bitcoin's rise of nearly 40% since its low at the end of June has rekindled the market's debate over whether cryptocurrencies have embarked on a new bull market. Cutting-edge technology investor Didier and macro hedge fund portfolio manager Griffin Ardern discussed this rebound and the future direction of the market. The two men basically reached consensus on the driving forces behind the current rise, but disagreed on whether Bitcoin had entered a new bull market.
Didier: Technical signals imply the early stages of the bull market
Didier believes that Bitcoin's significant breakthrough of the 200-day moving average is an important technical signal. He pointed out that relatively low market positions and large short positions could also support gains, suggesting that current trends may mark the early stages of a new bull cycle.
Griffin Ardern: Look at it with caution and still need to wait for a clear signal
However, Griffin Ardern is more cautious. He believes that Bitcoin is still at the end of a long bear market, and before discussing a continued bull market, clearer signals are needed from US dollar liquidity, U.S. fiscal policy and the Treasury bond market.
Two market experts agreed that the recent rise in Bitcoin is not entirely driven by fundamental factors. They cited several key reasons for price movements: investors did not fully build positions before rising, covering of short positions, and changes in market expectations for the U.S. fiscal outlook.
However, Didier and Ardern have differences on the trend of U.S. bond yields and the global liquidity outlook. In particular, the development of the bond market may play a decisive role in the scale of funds flowing into risky assets.
The evaluation also covered the balance sheet structure of Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, and its Bitcoin holdings. In addition, the flow of funds from the increasingly crowded AI-themed trading market to the cryptocurrency market is also seen as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin's rise.
