Atkins says CLARITY bill could be advanced within weeks

SEC Chairman: CLARITY bill expected to pass Senate in two weeks

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins said the CLARITY bill could pass the Senate in the next two weeks as lawmakers prepare for a key procedural vote on September 15.

Summary

The Senate has scheduled a closing debate vote on the CLARITY bill on September 15. Atkins expects lawmakers to push the bill through and ultimately send it to President Donald Trump. The SEC is developing independent cryptocurrency rules that will operate regardless of whether the bill is passed or not. Kalshi traders put a 49% chance of the bill becoming law in 2026.

Atkins expects progress on the CLARITY bill within two weeks

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said in a post that he hopes the Senate can push the CLARITY bill forward in the next two weeks, giving the delayed cryptocurrency market structure bill a chance to be submitted again to President Trump's desk.

Speaking about the agency's work on digital asset rules, Atkins said the SEC is preparing a framework that can be parallel to legislation. The proposal includes exemptions for certain fundraising activities and other cryptocurrency activities, and the agency will collect public opinion before deciding on final rules.

Atkins said the SEC could use its existing powers under federal securities laws if Congress failed to complete the bill. However, legislation will provide a more solid legal foundation because future committees may have a harder time overturning rules based on congressional bills.

The SEC chairman added: "What we really need is a statutory foundation," viewing congressional action as a more lasting path to developing U.S. cryptocurrency rules.

Atkins 'remarks came as the Senate was about to hold a scheduled closing debate vote on September 15. According to the official schedule, H.R. Motions for Bill 3633 will mature at 2:15 p.m. ET.

A vote to close the debate is not the final vote on the legislation. Instead, senators will decide whether to end procedural delays and move forward to debate, amendments and final passage. The motion requires 60 votes and requires bipartisan support in the deeply divided Senate.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune submitted a closed-debate motion to start the debate before lawmakers left Washington for the August recess. Failure to obtain 60 votes would prevent the Senate from moving directly to the final vote under the current schedule.

CLARITY bill faces tight congressional timetable

Although Atkins gave a two-week estimate, doubts about the bill's prospects remain as Congress approaches a period when midterm elections could occupy more of the Senate's agenda.

SALT CEO John Darcy said he still doubts lawmakers will be able to complete the measure this year. "Personally, I'm a little pessimistic about the passage of the CLARITY bill," Darcy said, citing the political timetable ahead of the midterm elections.

Kalshi traders put a 49% chance of the legislation becoming law in 2026, predicting that the market is almost equally divided. The contract represents traders 'expectations rather than an independent assessment of the bill's legal or political prospects.

Previous delays have narrowed the available time window. The House passed the legislation by a vote of 294-134 in July 2025, while the Senate Banking Committee passed its version by a vote of 15-9 in May 2026. According to committee official records, two Democrats joined the 13 Republicans on the committee.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, but cannot meet the threshold of terminating debate alone. Opposition or uncertainty among several Republican senators will require party leaders to seek more Democratic votes than in the Banking Committee stage.

The bill's path became more difficult in August, when senators left Washington without a full vote. The Senate leadership instead put procedural motions on the September agenda to keep the legislation alive but left little room for further delays.

Estimates from the forecast market have fluctuated widely this year. Polymarket traders gave a pass probability of 82%, but early pass estimates dropped to about 16% in early August after the Senate adjourned without action on the bill. Kalshi's more recent 49% figure suggests that there are varying assessments among users of the platform. Neither contract determines how senators will vote, and prices could change as negotiations continue.

The bill would divide the regulatory authority of the SEC and the CFTC.

The CLARITY bill would establish federal rules to determine when digital assets fall under the supervision of the SEC or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It will also create registration requirements for cryptocurrency companies and apply anti-money laundering obligations to related companies.

Under the proposed structure, the SEC will retain jurisdiction over digital assets that are considered securities and investment contracts. The CFTC will gain jurisdiction over qualified digital commodities and some of the spot markets that are not currently covered by its traditional derivatives authorization.

For U.S. investors and cryptocurrency companies, this division will affect which regulatory agency is responsible for regulating token trading, information disclosure, exchange registration, and customer protection. The framework could also provide companies with clear processes to prove when blockchain networks have met the conditions needed for tokens to move from securities regulation to commodity regulation.

The current legislative framework divides digital assets into several categories, including commodities, investment contract assets, and payment stablecoins. It also contains standards covering customer asset isolation, conflict of interest disclosures and trading platform compliance.

Several disputes remain unresolved. Senators debated whether companies should be allowed to pay rewards or interest to holders of stablecoins, how the bill should protect decentralized financial developers, and whether federal ethical rules should cover public officials who hold cryptocurrencies or business interests.

The revised Senate Banking Committee draft allows rewards related to customer activities while limiting passive gains paid solely for holding stablecoins. According to a May draft review, the same version did not contain the ethics provisions sought by some lawmakers.

Banking groups and cryptocurrency companies have taken different positions on stablecoin terms. Some banks believe interest-bearing stablecoin products could siphon off deposits from regulated lenders, while cryptocurrency companies say activity-based rewards should remain available.

SEC prepares regulatory fallback

While Congress negotiates, the SEC continues to make rules that do not depend on CLARITY becoming law. Atkins said the commission could use its existing powers under securities legislation to seek exemptions and other measures.

The SEC proposed "Crypto-Asset Regulation Rules" on August 18, including a $5 million exemption for startups, a $75 million fundraising exemption, and a safe harbor clause that would allow certain tokens to be removed from securities status after certain conditions are met.

Institutional rules do not have the same persistence as legislation. A future SEC leadership team could modify or repeal it through another rule-making process, which is why Atkins is calling for congressional support.

The CFTC is also preparing plans to deal with the possible failure of legislation. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said that regardless of the outcome of the CLARITY Act, the agency will continue to develop rules for the cryptocurrency market, including work within its existing authority.

At the SEC, a separate tokenization exemption could also be refiled within weeks. The proposal would allow approved platforms to test blockchain-based securities products with limited exemptions from existing requirements, although legal issues about the committee's powers had previously delayed the measure.

The agency also proposes to update transfer agent rules established before blockchain-based stock records became possible. The planned changes will cover cybersecurity, operational guarantees, and the use of distributed ledgers to maintain ownership records and process securities transfers.