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BTC What to Know
The Bitcoin Cyclical Momentum Indicator has entered bullish territory for the first time in eight months, once again strengthening market confidence in the four-year cycle model.
Large wallets increased their holdings of 60,000 bitcoins in August, while small investors sold 47,000 bitcoins, indicating that market supply is undergoing a significant redistribution.
ETF inflows and exchange liquidity provided support for demand, while US$69,000 remained a key price, maintaining Bitcoin's bullish structure amid volatility.
Bitcoin's cyclical momentum turns bullish, reigniting the four-year cycle theory
Bitcoin's cyclical momentum indicator has entered the bullish territory for the first time in eight months, strengthening confidence in Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle. According to CryptoQuant analyst Gaah, this chain indicator has historically identified a shift from a prolonged downturn to a stronger market stage. However, the indicator will need to remain at a high level in the coming weeks to confirm a lasting reversal in market trends.
Bitcoin's rise from US$62,000 to US$81,000 provided enough momentum to lift the indicator out of its previous negative range. Although Bitcoin has since fallen back to around $78,000, the overall structure still presents conditions consistent with the bullish transition period. Investor behavior also follows a familiar cyclical pattern, in which tokens flow from small traders to stronger market participants.
Large bitcoin holders continue to increase their holdings, and improved liquidity supports bullish cycle signals
Wallets holding at least 100 bitcoins increased their holdings of approximately 60,000 bitcoins in August, showing the strong confidence of large holders. At the same time, investors holding fewer than 100 bitcoins sold a total of about 47,000 bitcoins amid uncertainty and market changes. Some major holders have also begun using Bitcoin as collateral for loans rather than selling it when markets fall.
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded the strongest weekly investor inflows in the past ten months. In addition, more than $470 million of USDC entered major exchanges, indicating that traders have allocated funds for potential digital currency purchases. However, the increase in liquidity did not lead to continued gains, as some retail investors had taken profits when Bitcoin initially rose.
Bitcoin has entered a neutral valuation range of close to US$78,000, where it is difficult for buyers and sellers to establish clear directional control. Therefore, the market may need to consolidate further to welcome new demand, which will push prices beyond the recent high of $81,000 and continue to rise.
The average cost price for short-term holders to purchase Bitcoin is approximately US$69,000, making this region an important support level. Holding on to $69,000 will help maintain the improving structure and strengthen the bullish interpretation of CryptoQuant's cyclical indicator. Taken together, these developments suggest that despite rising institutional engagement, Bitcoin's existing cyclical framework remains valid. However, continued strong indicator performance, solid support at $69,000 and reduced retail selling remain key conditions for confirming the overall bullish reversal.
