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Federal Reserve raises interest rates to 4% as warming inflation outlook suggests another rate hike

2026-09-17 03:29:02

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美联储加息25个基点，联邦基金目标区间升至3.75%-4%

周三，美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）将其基准利率上调0.25个百分点，使联邦基金目标利率区间达到3.75%至4%。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的12名成员全部投票支持此次加息。

经济活动与劳动力市场保持强劲

美联储官员将经济活动描述为以稳健的速度扩张，并指出国内支出继续展现出韧性。生产率和资本投资水平也保持强劲。

FOMC评论称，就业增长与劳动力增长紧密同步，而失业率在过去几个月里变化不大。尽管整体经济背景积极向好，但央行承认通胀仍高于其长期2%的目标。此次加息旨在以更及时的方式将通胀拉近该目标。

未来利率走势与政策预期

美联储最新的“点阵图”显示，18位FOMC参与者中有16人预计至少还将有一次加息，其中四人预见到可能进行两次进一步加息。另有两名委员预计在此次最新行动之后不再加息。

在2026年之后的年份中，未预测到额外的加息。相反，FOMC成员预计将在2028年降息一次，并在2029年至少再降息一次，这表明向宽松政策立场的转变将异常缓慢。

由于美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）上任后不单独提交个人预测，因此他的数据未包含在点阵图中。委员会的预测凸显了一条不寻常的政策路径，因为美联储通常在应对持续通胀或需求疲软时，会避免采取孤立、单一的加息或降息操作。

迷你词典：点阵图（Dot plot）——由美联储发布的图表，显示每位政策制定者对未来利率的预期，帮助分析人士和公众评估委员会内部对货币政策路径的情绪。

通胀预测向上修正

美联储官员上调了其对通胀的预测。目前预计2026年总体个人消费支出（PCE）通胀将达到3.7%，核心PCE预计为3.4%。这两个数字均比此前6月的估计高出0.1个百分点。美联储预计通胀要到2029年才能触及2%的目标。

到2027年，政策制定者预测总体PCE通胀将降至2.3%，核心PCE将降至2.5%。委员会将失业率预测下调至4.1%，较 prior 预测降低了0.2个百分点。

较高的近期预测反映了经济面临的通胀压力的不寻常性质。官员们通常会忽略暂时性的价格上涨（例如由能源价格飙升或关税引起的价格波动），但鉴于劳动力市场的稳定以及持续的价格压力，此次他们变得更加谨慎。

年份总体PCE通胀 (%) Core PCE inflation (%) Unemployment Rate (%) 2026 3.7 3.4 4.1 2027 2.3 2.5 – 2029 (Target) 2.0 2.0 –

Markets have expected this rate hike

Financial markets have expected the Fed's rate hike in advance after a series of strong inflation reports that exceeded expectations and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. A month ago, traders thought the probability of a rate hike was only 36%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool; before the meeting, the probability had risen to more than 90%.

Crude oil prices surged above $100 a barrel amid rising geopolitical tensions, adding to inflationary pressures and prompting expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a tighter policy stance. The Fed's current outlook is clearly more restrictive than the market expected a few weeks ago.

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