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BTC Founder of Checkonchain: Bitcoin may have established a bottom of its cycle
James Check, founder and chief analyst of Checkonchain, said that after two "capitulation-style" sell-offs, Bitcoin may have established a bottom of its cycle. He believes that changes in holder behavior suggest that the market has absorbed most of the selling pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record high of more than US$126,000 in October 2025, but at the time of writing, its price was trading at around US$77,400, down nearly 39% from its peak. Based on Bitcoin's historic four-year cycle, some traders expect BTC to establish another low in October 2026. In July this year, analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out that cycle duration data and the U.S. midterm election calendar both point to the fourth quarter as a bottom-building window.
On Cointelegraph's "Proof of Thesis" program, Check described Bitcoin's February decline towards around $60,000 as a "painful price surrender" in which investors who bought near the top left with huge losses. He then pointed to a second "time-painful surrender" that occurred in June and July and priced around $58,000. Prior to this, Bitcoin experienced months of sideways swings, causing holders to question whether Bitcoin could recover.
"What's the difference between $58,000 and $59,000 or $60,000? It doesn't make much difference,"Check told Cointelegraph." It's these six months that really opened the gap. This is the real difference."
他的评估挑战了市场对10月低点的预期，表明与熊市底部相关的投降信号实际上早在几个月前就已出现。Check表示，约有3000亿美元的比特币持仓成本集中在5.8万至7万美元区间，而在随后的反弹过程中，约有400万个BTC从未实现亏损转为盈利。他还补充道，长期持有者目前控制了约80%的比特币财富，他们更有可能等待大幅更高的价格，而不是在短期反弹后卖出。
四年周期论误导交易者
Check认为，固守四年周期是一个错误，因为没有任何机械性理由证明它会重复发生。“在你的指南针失效之前很久，就要问自己：‘好吧，现在我该怎么做？’”Check对Cointelegraph说，“这就像一块坏掉的钟，一天只对两次。假设它是坏的，然后寻找更好的方法。”
Check指出，过去的周期日期并不能解释投资者为何投降。相反，他建议交易者应关注持仓成本、未实现盈亏、已实现盈亏、持有者的盈利能力，以及经验丰富的投资者是在积累还是分配他们的代币。
他表示，只有在出现市场耗尽或投降的证据后，日历日期才应提供背景参考。“寻找证据，而不是日历，”Check说道。
Grayscale研究员也认为5.8万美元为底部
Grayscale研究主管Zach Pandl在Cointelegraph《Trade Secrets》节目的最近采访中也得出了类似的结论。“我愿意冒个险猜测一下，价格在6月底就已经在5.8万美元触底，”Pandl告诉Cointelegraph。
Pandl表示，此次下跌产生的绝望感不如之前的比特币熊市强烈，但紧随其后的牛市所产生的狂热情绪也较少，这可能导致跌幅更加可控。
他还指出，比特币能够在不利消息面前保持韧性而不再继续下跌。“当某个资产类别（无论是加密货币还是其他任何资产）的价格在坏消息下停止下跌时，这通常是一个超卖信号，”Pandl说。
链上数据仍然呈现混合态势。HODL Waves数据显示，持有期为1至7天的比特币供应量仅从7月1日的1.97%微升至7月5日的2.35%，分析师Willy Woo将此解读为抄底买家的反应异常平淡。
然而，CryptoQuant的数据显示，短期持有者在连续30天内保持了部分盈利状态，这是2026年最长的此类时段，且分析公司表示这一模式曾出现在之前的比特币市场复苏中。
