Bitcoin price analysis: Can BTC maintain its breakthrough momentum?

Bitcoin breaks through the decline channel, ushering in its first real test since October 2025

Bitcoin has broken through the decline channel that has suppressed every rebound since October 2025. After two months of summer turmoil, the 200-week moving average held on as the bottom of the cycle. The price is currently testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, and this week's closing price will determine the next direction. Long-term holders have returned to profit territory, while spot buyers remain absent.

Judging from the weekly chart, Bitcoin prices faced their first real test after breaking through in August. BTC was trading at $84,055 on Saturday, right near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level ($83,848) for the 2025-2026 decline. The rebound in mid-August pulled BTC out of its ten-month downward channel and away from the simple 200-week moving average that serves as the bottom of the bear market. This week's high hit $87,378, up from the next high in May 2026 and the first higher weekly high since a peak of $125,668 in October 2025. Sunday's close will show whether the trend extends to $92,000 or whether it returns to retest support levels.

The channel that rejected all rallies finally broke

BTC peaked at $125,668 in October 2025 and then remained in a declining channel for the next ten months. Each rally has been blocked at its upper boundary, including an attempt to push it to about $81,000 in May 2026. The lowest point of the decline was near $57,997, or about 54%.

这次突破并非发生在200周SMA深下方。从6月到8月初，价格直接在均线附近震荡，多次下探后均收回该均线。目前该均线位于约65,844美元，且仍在上升，这表明熊市下的多年趋势并未被打破。

8月中旬结束了这种震荡。一根周线蜡烛图涨幅约20%，将价格从约63,000美元拉升至78,000美元，一举突破了200周SMA和通道的上边界。在200周均线处形成漫长的盘整基础后出现高动量突破，这是技术分析师在试图确认宏观底部时寻找的典型序列。本周在币安平台上创下87,378美元的高点，从而打破了5月的次高点。虽然确认反转需要更多的更高高点，但BTC自顶部以来首次打破了看跌序列。

卖家已在第一次重大考验中反击

斐波那契回撤测量的是价格从下跌中恢复的程度。83,848美元的0.382水平标志着恢复了整个跌幅的38.2%，这通常是缓解性反弹遭遇真实卖压的地方。

本周的K线开盘价为81,162美元，最高推至87,378美元，随后回落至约83,813美元。长长的上影线表明卖家将价格从高位打压下来。该K线将于周一UTC时间00:00收盘。如果收于83,848美元上方，则打开通往91,833美元的道路；如果收于下方，则指向对78,161美元至73,968美元区域的重新测试。

The $91,833 level (0.5 retracement level) overlaps with the trading range from December 2025 to January 2026, and many buyers are still trapped and may sell at the break-even point. Above it, the "gold pocket" area stretches to $99,818, an area where soothing bear market rallies often peak. If it stabilizes above US$100,000, BTC will enter a new upward trend in its weekly structure.

The downward 50-week moving average is not as pessimistic as it seems

The 50-week SMA at US$78,161 limited a May rally, and BTC traded above that moving average for the first time since late 2025. Since its one-year window still includes the high-price week of late 2025, its slope remains downward. As these high-priced weeks move out of the window, the moving average should flatten out on its own, while several weeks of closing prices above it will confirm that the medium-term trend has shifted. The 50-week moving average is also much higher than the 200-week moving average, so there is no bearish cross.

The weekly RSI reading was around 61, above its average near 47. Over the past 14 weeks, buyers have controlled the market but have not pushed it into overheated areas above 70. That reading fell below 30 in early 2026 and built higher lows throughout the summer. If a new price high appears in the "gold pocket" area, but the RSI high is lower, this will be the first warning signal of weakening momentum.

Long-term holder just stepped out of danger zone

链上数据解释了为何200周SMA坚守得如此牢固。据分析师Axel Adler Jr称，截至9月23日，长期持有者（指持有六个月或更长时间的硬币）的平均购买价格为62,706美元，仅比200周SMA低约3,100美元。在8月初，这一群体几乎陷入亏损，而在经历54%的跌幅后处于盈亏平衡点的持有者几乎没有理由在震荡中卖出。

他们的缓冲空间迅速扩大。Adler指出，9月15日这一缓冲比例为20%，而9月23日达到37%，由于成本基础几乎未变，这意味着价格上涨承担了主要工作。他提出的开放性问题在于，回调是否会像2015-2018年那样保持紧密，还是会像2018-2022年那样扩大。

现货买家仍未现身

CryptoQuant于9月24日发布的数据将30天的需求增长分为现货市场和永续合约两部分。期货需求在8月和9月转为正值，而现货需求仍为负值，尽管它正从低点回升。

这一预测取决于动能是否持续，且数据尚未翻转。在此之前，反弹依赖于杠杆，强制清算可能导致在83,848美元处的拒绝比单纯的现货抛售更为剧烈。

围绕突破的资金流符合这一画面。根据Farside Investors的数据，现货比特币ETF在9月18日吸收了4.33亿美元，而在9月21日BTC突破85,000美元时，超过6.48亿美元的空头头寸被清算。强制空头回补可以迅速推高价格，而无需新的现货买家入场，这也是为什么CryptoQuant的现货读数比表面上的走势更重要。

从2025年10月高点到本周的考验

• 2025年10月： BTC创下125,668美元的历史新高，进入下降通道。
• 2026年5月： 反弹至约81,000美元，在通道上边界失败。
• 2026年6月至8月初： 价格触底于57,997美元附近，并在200周SMA附近震荡。
• 2026年8月初： 长期持有者接近盈亏平衡点。
• 2026年8月中旬： 一根涨幅约+20%的周线蜡烛图突破通道。
• 9月22-23日： BTC超越5月高点，持有者利润缓冲达到37%。
• 9月26日： BTC在周线收盘前在0.382斐波那契水平交易。

此次突破仍可能失败的地方

If it is rejected at 0.382, the setting will still hold as long as buyers defend between $73,968 and $78,161 (the area where the 0.236 retracement level overlaps with the 50-week SMA), as this will create a higher low above the summer bottom. If the weekly closes below $73,968, the breakthrough will be questioned, while falling below $65,844 near the 200-week SMA will invalidate it. Light weekend trading increased closing risk, with CoinMarketCap data showing 24-hour volume of $14.82 billion against a market cap of $1.68 trillion.

The top and bottom of the chain will also change in the coming months. Coins purchased during the bottom of the summer (between approximately $58,000 and $66,000) cross the six-month threshold around December, which should keep the cost base for long-term holders near the 200-week SMA. The first 30-day window in CryptoQuant's data for positive spot demand will show that the breakthrough is backed by buyers outside the derivatives market.