Bitcoin leads the three major conferences facing severe cryptocurrencies in September

September: The three major risk-averse and offensive options in the uncertainty of the crypto market

Normally, September is a riskier period for cryptocurrency investment. Historically, Bitcoin tends to have its weakest monthly performance during this period, and central bank decisions tend to exacerbate market volatility. This year's background has added many uncertainties, including expectations that the United States may raise interest rates. Despite these threats, three cryptocurrencies have strong reasons to ride out the month smoothly: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.

Summary of Core Views

• Seasonally unfavorable: September has historically been unfriendly to the crypto market, and monetary policy uncertainty further exacerbates volatility.
• Bitcoin (defensive first choice): Bitcoin is seen as the most defensive option due to its liquidity, market dominance and potential ETF support.
• Ethereum (intermediate positioning): Maintaining a leading position in tokenized finance, driven by stablecoins, real-world assets (RWAs), and funds flowing to ETFs.
• Solana (offensive potential): presents a more offensive character, thanks to its on-chain activity, but also faces a higher risk of pullbacks.
• Key variables: The Federal Reserve's decisions and the flow of funds to ETFs will determine the trend of these three cryptocurrencies in September.

September: The superposition of seasonal headwinds and monetary policy risks

Since 2013, Bitcoin has fallen by an average of about 3% during September. During this period, only five closed gains were recorded. This seasonal characteristic earned it the nickname "Rektember"(Rekt + September), a crypto industry term that means suffering significant losses.

This year's macroeconomic situation has further strengthened this caution. The market gives the Federal Reserve a probability of raising interest rates on September 16 more than 60%. Conflict in the Middle East has also pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations. Justin Onuekwusi of St. James's Place pointed out: "The way the Fed communicates is crucial because it is related to its credibility and the direction of global interest rates."

In this context, these three assets have different risk levels:

• Bitcoin: Due to its liquidity and market dominance, it is the most defensive option;
• Ethereum: Provides medium-risk profiles supported by pledges, stablecoins and tokenization;
• Solana: provides greater offensive potential, but is also more susceptible to pullbacks.

It needs to be emphasized that this option does not guarantee positive returns, it only favors cryptocurrencies with significant liquidity and identifiable economic activity.

Bitcoin: The most defensive option in the crypto market

Bitcoin remains the most valued and liquid asset in the crypto market. These features make trading operations easier and often limit price fluctuations, making them more robust than other small altcoins. However, such characteristics do not completely eliminate the risk of a correction, especially after a 25% gain in August.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also an indicator worthy of attention. According to available data, as of the end of August, these U.S. products had attracted nearly $2.5 billion in capital inflows in the past seven trading days. Continued inflows will provide support for BTC, while large-scale capital outflows may amplify selling pressure.

Therefore, of the three selected cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin constitutes the most prudent portfolio allocation. Its subsequent trend mainly depends on the Federal Reserve's decisions, changes in bond yields, and whether it can sustainably recover the $80,000 mark.

Ethereum: Staying ahead in tokenized finance

Ethereum benefits from less reliance on purely speculative trading activities. According to DefiLlama, the blockchain hosts approximately US$148 billion in stablecoins, accounting for nearly 49% of total network distribution.

Its position in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is equally clear. According to RWA.xyz, Ethereum currently hosts $17.57 billion of distributed RWAs and $159.71 billion of stablecoins. Although the price of Ethereum is undergoing adjustments, the size of these funds consolidates its role as a financial infrastructure.

The Ethereum ETF also recorded net capital inflows for the ten trading days ended August 28. Its cumulative traffic is close to US$12.98 billion. This demand provides potential support, however, the token is still more volatile than Bitcoin. Competition from other blockchains and declining fee-based revenue are also two main risk points.

Solana: More potential, but more volatility

Solana presents the most offensive characteristics in this selection. The network combines low fees, fast execution capabilities, and significant activity in decentralized exchanges, stablecoins and tokenized assets.

Its stablecoin supply exceeded US$16 billion in May. According to the Solana Foundation, the total assets of the Solana ETF are also close to $1.13 billion. According to data from 21Shares, the blockchain handled US$1.9 trillion in stablecoin transactions in the first half of the year.

Solana is more sensitive to liquidity withdrawals and rapid selling. It is more suitable for dynamic exposure investments than defensive positions. During September, opening positions in batches may reduce the risk of entering the market before a correction. The Fed's decisions and the flow of funds to ETFs will help determine whether Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana can really withstand their unfavorable seasonal trends.