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ADA Cardano (ADA) fell sharply this week, falling below key support levels
Cardano (ADA) fell significantly this week, falling more than 8%, and is currently trading just above a key support area. The asset's short momentum was strengthened by weak derivatives market activity and cautious signals on the chain. Traders are watching closely to see whether a continued drop below $0.195 will lead to a further decline to $0.173.
Derivatives market reveals growing bearish sentiment
Data from derivatives platforms shows that traders are increasingly framing Cardano's downside risks. According to CoinGlass, the ADA's long-short ratio fell to 0.93 on Friday, its lowest point in nearly a month. When the ratio is below 1, it indicates that there are more bearish bets than bullish bets, indicating that prices may fall further.
Although the ADA tried to achieve a modest rebound from this week's lows, negative sentiment among leveraged traders persisted. In addition, Cardano's funding rate turned negative to-0.0006%, which means that short holders now need to pay fees to long positions-a sign that demand for bearish exposure has outweighed the appetite for bullish heads.
If Cardano's funding rate remains negative and the price approaches key support levels, traders may see increased volatility. However, excessive accumulation of short positions may also create the conditions for a rapid rebound when buying returns-a situation known as "Short Squeeze."
Long and short ratios and negative funding rates point to deepening bearish sentiment in the Cardano futures market, while continued whale activity highlights the continued attention of major players. CryptoQuant's analysis pointed out that large giant whale orders have appeared in the ADA futures market, indicating that institutional traders are still active. At the same time, trading activity on both spot and derivatives exchanges was increasing, although several indicators remained neutral. This combination suggests increased market participation, but does not confirm Cardano's clear direction in the near term.
Technology Outlook: ADA holds key moving average
Cardano has fallen more than 8% since the beginning of the week and is currently trading around $0.202. Despite its weak performance, the ADA has so far managed to remain above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $0.200 and the 50-day EMA of $0.198, maintaining a neutral to slightly over-the-counter technical trend.
However, the broader trend remains suppressed by resistance near the 200th EMA (approximately US$0.241). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the midpoint of 50, reflecting a balance between buying and selling pressures, while the Smooth Similarity Moving Average (MACD) indicator is slightly negative and remains below the zero-axis, emphasizing the lack of clear bullish momentum.
ADA's immediate upside resistance is set at $0.213 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and potential targets will look further towards $0.231 (61.8% retracement) if buyers regain control. Stronger resistance is concentrated between $0.236 and $0.245, an area that includes the 200-day EMA and poses a significant obstacle to any recovery attempt. On the downside, Cardano's main support lies between $0.198 and $0.200 and is consolidated by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.195.
A decisive close below this range on the daily chart would weaken ADA's technical structure and could open the door to a further decline of $0.173. If selling intensifies, the next important support level is expected to be around $0.150.
If it can clearly break through US$0.213, Cardano is expected to target higher resistance; but if the price closes below US$0.195, the market will face additional downside risks.
