六大比特币信号指向熊市可能结束

Is the bear market coming to an end?

Many of the signals that emerged during previous market reversals are now emerging again. Denny Galindo of the Global Investment Office of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management points to six of these signs, ranging from the cyclical calendar to the difficulty of mining Bitcoin. However, not all signals point in a positive direction. Some indicators are still far from their historical lows. Between historical similarities and persistent anomalies, the market may be in a state of "recovery" but has not yet fully emerged from the bear market.

Summary of Core Points

• Six historical signals suggest that the bear market may be coming to an end.
• Bitcoin's cyclical calendar is approaching previous stages of recovery.
• Several indicators are still incomplete, including decline, mining difficulty and hot money multiple (Thermocap).
• As artificial intelligence becomes the dominant narrative beyond cryptocurrency, the next cycle may be different.

The crypto market calendar is close to the exit period of previous bear markets

Looking at the four full cycles previously observed, the cryptocurrency market follows a sequence of approximately four years: a three-year bull market followed by a 12-to 14-month bear market. Galindo described this succession as "the four seasons of cryptocurrency." The current calendar is specifically close to the period when "spring" occurred in previous cycles. Historically, this phase begins 17 months before the next halving, or 12 to 14 months after the previous peak. As a result, September this year is exactly 17 months before the next halving and 11 months after the previous peak.

Another important marker involves the tensions affecting exchanges as a cycle change approaches. Large platforms often shut down or go bankrupt on the eve of the previous "Crypto Spring". This time, BitMEX announced in July that it plans to shut down in September. The 50% rally since the low has historically coincided with previous market lows.

Overall, the analysis identified six signals to watch for to determine whether the market has truly shifted seasonally:

1. Cycle duration: Measured against the previous peak and the upcoming halving;
2. Tensions among exchanges and institutional participants: Observe before the arrival of previous crypto springs;
3. Bitcoin's retracement: Compare with corrections during past bear markets;
4. Mining difficulty: Its decline and then rebound is accompanied by past cycles;
5. Hot money multiples （Thermocap multiple）：衡量比特币市值相对于BTC挖矿时所获价值的累计美元价值；
6. 价格演变：基于从低点反弹50%的历史阈值。

多项指标仍远低于历史水平

当分析转向比特币的具体指标时，情况变得不那么一致。以往的熊市导致跌幅在先前峰值下方77%至84%之间。而在2025年10月6日至2026年6月30日期间，比特币仅下跌了53%。加林多认为，这种程度的修正足以构成一个信号，但仍显著浅于以往周期中的调整幅度。

挖矿难度的情况也适用同样的谨慎态度。尽管它确实下降了，符合熊市结束时观察到的历史行为，但尚未出现反弹。热钱倍数也是如此。该指标比较比特币市值与挖矿时赋予BTC的累计美元价值。以往的熊市结束时的比率低于10倍，而在此次周期中，其高点仅为13倍。因此，历史场景的 various 片段可见，但并未完全重现过去的低点。

下一个比特币周期可能遵循不同的情景

这种分歧引出了加林多提出的一个新问题：比特币是否必须重复其旧的周期机制？在2012-2016年和2016-2020年的周期中，加密货币都是在减半后才超过前一周期的峰值。然而，2024年的先例打破了这一序列。比特币在4月减半前一个月就超过了2021年的纪录。

In 2020 and 2021, cryptocurrencies are one of the most visible forms of expression of speculation around disruptive technology in a highly liquid environment. Since 2024, artificial intelligence has become the dominant growth narrative. So Galindo raises a question that may accompany the next cycle: Has artificial intelligence replaced cryptocurrencies as a major speculative and technology market theme?

These six indicators do not provide uniform conclusions. The calendar shows similarities to previous bear markets, while retractions, mining difficulty and hot money multiples are out of sync with certain historical patterns. There are also two unknowns: how Bitcoin will perform before its next halving, and the role artificial intelligence currently plays. A "crypto spring" may be taking shape; however, Galindo's analysis mainly encourages people to watch for signs rather than announce it too early.