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ETH 以太坊 ETF 资金流向不及比特币剧烈，稳定币流动性正在转移
截至9月16日，美联储将利率上调25个基点后，以太坊（ETH）价格维持在2,440美元附近，继续在其自8月下旬以来形成的震荡区间内运行。2,500美元仍是关键阻力位，而2,350至2,400美元构成了区间的底部支撑。
尽管面临宏观政策的调整，但以太坊ETF在9月16日的净流出额为2.2411亿美元，这一数字相较于此前七天的流出规模已明显缓和，远不及比特币ETF的剧烈程度。与此同时，交易所内的以太坊储备量已从超过2,100万枚下降至约1,460万枚，市场可用供应进一步收紧。
此外，以太坊上的稳定币流动性正在复苏，USDC的市场份额正逐步缩小与USDT之间的差距。
美联储加息后的市场反应
9月16日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率上调25个基点，使其处于3.75%至4.00%的区间。美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）表示，美国经济依然强劲，金融状况并未显示出明显的限制性特征。如果通胀持续高位运行，这为未来进一步加息留下了空间。
In contrast, Bitcoin responded more violently to the news and is currently testing support levels near $75,000, which are well below its recent rebound area. The trend of Ethereum appears to be more stable. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 54, indicating that the market is neutral and is neither oversold nor overbought.
Ethereum Price Chart
Source: CoinGecko
Ethereum ETF Capital flow: The weaker than Bitcoin
spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of US$224.11 million on September 16, compared with a net outflow of US$141.47 million on preceding day. However, during the seven trading days from September 8 to September 16, the total net outflow was only US$47.45 million. Strong inflow days during this period offset some subsequent divestments.
For comparison, the Bitcoin ETF lost nearly US$1.05 billion over the same period. This significant gap suggests that selling pressure from institutional investors this month has had less impact on Ethereum funds than on Bitcoin funds.
Exchange reserve data provides another perspective. CryptoQuant data shows that the number of Ethereum held on chain exchanges has dropped from more than 21 million at the beginning of 2025 to approximately 14.6 million currently.
Changes in the liquidity pattern of Ethereum stablecoin
According to DeFiLlama, Ethereum has the largest stablecoin liquidity base in the Layer-1 network, accounting for approximately 50% of the US$300 billion stablecoin market size.
analyst Leon Waidmann pointed out that the rise in Ethereum network activity is a signal on the liquidity return chain, a trend that is related to the recovery of the stablecoin market after three months of outflows. Token Terminal data shows that Ethereum processed more than 203 million transactions in the second quarter, an increase of 68.4% over the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, ETH has increased by 52% in the third quarter.
In the Ethereum ecosystem, USDC is closing the gap with USDT. Although the USDT still accounts for 49.6% of the stablecoin share, higher than the USDC's 31.8%, the gap between the two has narrowed from 34.2 percentage points in November 2024 to the current 17.8 percentage points.
Since November 2024, USDT supply has increased by 22%, while USDC supply has increased by 83%. In 2026, USDT supply fell by 15.5%, compared with USDC supply falling by only 2.9%.
Technical Outlook
Currently, Ethereum needs the daily closing price to exceed US$2,500 to confirm a signal that the oscillation range breaks upwards. On the downside side, we need to focus on the initial support level of $2,350.
