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XRP A list of the four major XRP signals
Price: The daily candle chart exceeded US$1.418, but it has not yet closed.
Derivatives: Open interest amounts rebounded to more than US$1 billion.
Network: The number of active accounts recovered, but did not hit a record high.
Exchange balances: Binance tracks reserves of 2.643 billion XRP.
$1.42 repeatedly rejected XRP gains
According to CoinMarketCap data, on September 19, XRP traded close to $1.42 after a 24-hour gain of about 7%. Trading volume was close to $5 billion, about 75% higher than in the first 24 hours.
On the Bitstamp XRP/USD daily chart, the token hit an intraday high near US$1.44, and as of 07:33 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), the trading price was around US$1.42. The trading day has not yet ended.
The Fibonacci retracement range shown instarts at $1.24 near the August low and ends at a subsequent high near $1.69. Its 38.2% retracement level is around $1.418, right where the latest wave of gains paused.
XRP returns to resistance around $1.42. Source: TradingView.
Fibonacci tags are only secondary references. XRP has indicated that sellers respond around that price.
9月初的一波涨势曾将 XRP 推高至1.42美元以上，并向1.45美元迈进，但该代币很快回落至该水平之下。随后的几根K线测试了同一区域，但未能将其确立为支撑位。
最明显的失败发生在9月中旬。XRP 短暂触及接近1.49美元的价格，突破了1.47美元附近的50%回撤位。随后，它在下一轮交易中收盘于1.42美元附近，并跌至1.29美元。
最近的反弹始于这一较低区域。XRP 收复了1.35美元附近的23.6%回撤位，并突破了连接其9月高点的下降趋势线。目前，它已回到了此前尝试失败的位置。
日线相对强弱指数（RSI）已恢复至约57，而其信号平均值约为54。动能有所改善，但该指标仍低于传统的超买阈值70。
反弹伴随更广泛的加密市场
XRP 并非独自复苏。随着比特币重回78,000美元上方，这一走势成为山寨币领涨行情的一部分。另一方面，CryptoQuant 的数据显示，衍生品交易者加入了这一更广泛的市场动能。
期货交易者比链上活动更快行动
市场价格于9月19日核查，而提供的 CryptoQuant 图表显示的最新完成每日观察数据截至9月18日。
aggregate XRP 未平仓合约在9月16日降至约8.7亿美元，两天后回升至略高于10亿美元的水平。增幅约为1.4亿美元，即16%。
XRP 未平仓合约重新突破10亿美元。来源：CryptoQuant。
价格上涨和未平仓合约增加表明，交易者在反弹期间增加了衍生品头寸。未平仓合约并不能揭示方向，因为每个合约都有多头和空头两面。资金费率提供了额外的线索。
CryptoQuant 显示的聚合资金费率读数在9月18日增至约0.009，这是所提供的七天图表中的最高点。正的资金费率意味着永续合约多头持有者向空头支付费用，显示出对看涨暴露度的需求更强。
新的衍生品头寸可以在价格上涨的同时加速上涨势头。但如果杠杆交易者比现货持有者更快地减少敞口，也可能导致更剧烈的拒绝（回调）。
XRP 账本上的活动有所改善，但速度不同步。活跃账户数量恢复至约16,700个，而在近期下跌中曾短暂跌至接近11,000个。最新读数仍低于8月下旬接近22,700个的峰值，且处于自春季以来的更广泛范围内。
XRP 账本活跃账户恢复至16,700个。来源：CryptoQuant。
Active accounts are not equal to independent users. One entity can control multiple accounts, and automated trading can also affect totals. However, using the same measure over time, the latest price recovery has not led to a corresponding breakthrough in ledger participation.
As of September 18, futures positions have returned to recent highs, while network activity remains within the previous range.
Binance reserves did not fall during the rebound
CryptoQuant's Binance reserve series reached approximately 2.643 billion XRP, the highest reading for the Aug-September period shown. The last increase was approximately 16 million XRP, or approximately 0.6% of the balance tracked by the exchange.
Binance tracks XRP reserves of 2.643 billion. Source: CryptoQuant.
This increase is too small to support the idea that a "massive sell-off is imminent." The series covers only Binance, not the entire market, and the total reserve volume may change due to adjustments in customer deposits, internal transfers or tracking wallet addresses.
The narrower conclusion is that XRP did not approach $1.42 when Binance tracked balances steadily shrank. As a result, the decline in exchange inventories cannot explain the recent rebound.
Three results after the next daily close
Subsequent changes in the chart
1. Close and remain above US$1.42 thereafter
这将清除直接障碍，使 XRP 回到1.47美元附近的50%回撤位。突破1.47美元后，1.52美元附近的61.8%水平将进入视野。
2. 在1.35美元获得支撑的情况下被拒绝
XRP 将保持在9月区间内。反弹将失去动能，但不会立即回到近期低点。
3. 日线跌破1.35美元
注意力将回到1.25-1.27美元，那里与8月低点和50日及200日移动平均线重叠。
短暂的突破阻力位并不能解决问题，因为 XRP 在此前的尝试中已在日内穿越过该区域。完成的日线收盘将改善结构；在资金费率和未平仓合约冷却后仍保持在区域之上，将提供更强的确认。
如果衍生品敞口下降，而 XRP 维持在1.42美元以上，买方将吸收回调而不需要杠杆持续增长。如果价格在头寸平仓时下跌，且账本活动保持在现有范围内，那么这次反弹看起来更像是由期货交易放大的广泛市场上涨，而不是独立支持的 XRP 突破。
