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BTC Bitcoin ETFs are expected to overtake gold: Analysts are optimistic about long-term trends
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said this week that the asset size of a Bitcoin ETF could eventually reach three times the size of a gold ETF. He pointed to the rise of young investors, declining volatility and increased sales activity around BTC funds as key factors driving this outlook.
His view is based on a long-term structural shift: who is holding Bitcoin and how institutions use it. This is not to claim that cryptocurrencies have replaced gold as a store of value, but to emphasize the release of future potential.
Bitcoin is closing the gap with gold
In an interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Balchunas pointed out that younger generations of investors are more inclined to view Bitcoin as a store of value. As these investors accumulate more capital, Bitcoin ETFs will gain potential advantages.
"I believe the asset size of a Bitcoin ETF will be three times that of gold." he said.
Currently, gold is less volatile than Bitcoin (BTC). According to the analyst, volatility is the main concern reported by investors when considering flagship cryptocurrencies. But if Bitcoin's volatility and its correlation with other assets continue to move closer to gold, he expects large institutions to more comfortably use it as a store of value, safe-haven asset or alternative positions.
However, Bitcoin is still considered different from gold. Balchunas said that over the years Bitcoin has traded more like the Nasdaq 100 index, so it has been labeled as a high-beta asset that is closely correlated with stocks. He described Bitcoin as "the gold of youth" to compare its short history of about 17 years with the long and profound record of gold.
His argument also focuses on distribution channels. In a subsequent post, Balchunas pointed out that Bitcoin has "more enthusiasm and sales firepower." He also mentioned that wholesalers familiar with cryptocurrencies and the habits of older investors are actively promoting Bitcoin ETFs to customers, compared to gold ETFs that have few similar sales activities.
The analyst then emphasized that his views did not mean that gold would disappear. "Gold will not disappear," he wrote."I just think that in the long run, Bitcoin ETFs as a category will be bigger than gold."
ETF fund flows show the situation remains complex
The latest fund data provides a more complex picture. Data showed that on September 17, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of US$159.45 million. The market experienced difficult times in the previous two days: a net outflow of US$295.98 million on September 16, and a net outflow of US$450.33 million on September 15.
For the week ended September 17, these ETFs had a combined net outflow of US$426.81 million. At the same time, the cumulative inflow was US$54.73 billion, and the total net asset value was US$96.25 billion, equivalent to 6.26% of the total market value of Bitcoin.
此前报道指出，在截至9月11日的四个交易日中，这些产品录得了4.6273亿美元的净流出。这与8月份强劲的吸引期形成对比，当时它们在单周内吸引了超过19亿美元的资金。
