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前Ripple首席技术官解析：XRP在何种价格下有望超越比特币市值

2026-09-22 03:18:41

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Former Ripple CTO David Schwartz believes that XRP is expected to surpass Bitcoin in market value, but certain conditions must be met.

Former Ripple Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz believes that XRP may eventually surpass Bitcoin in market value. But he emphasized that achieving this scenario requires XRP to grow faster than Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, rather than Bitcoin itself shrinking in value.

During last week's X Spaces discussion hosted by ILLY, a participant named Angie asked Schwartz whether he thought XRP could truly "flip"(i.e., market value transcends) Bitcoin. Schwartz gave a direct answer and further explained what he believed to be the prerequisites for making this possible.

"Yes, I think so. But I don't think this stems from Bitcoin shrinking, but from XRP growing faster than Bitcoin." Schwartz said.

It is worth noting that the executive who was also involved in the design of XRP Ledger did not set a specific timetable or clear price target for this possibility. The core of his argument is that as the overall cryptocurrency market expands, the value of XRP needs to grow faster than Bitcoin.

Currently, the market value of Bitcoin is approximately US$1.55 trillion, accounting for 57.3% of the total cryptocurrency market share; while the market value of XRP is approximately US$87 billion. This means that the market value of Bitcoin is approximately 18 times that of XRP.

If Bitcoin's market value remains the same, XRP needs to reach approximately US$1.55 trillion to match it. Given that the number of XRPs in circulation is approximately 62.7 billion, it is calculated that the price of the token needs to reach approximately US$25 each.

然而，这一数值仅在比特币维持当前市值的前提下成立。如果BTC也继续上涨，XRP则需要攀升至更高水平才能实现超越。

这一区分至关重要，因为上述约25美元的数字是基于当前估值的数学估算，而非Schwartz给出的具体价格目标。

与此同时，Schwartz所设想的情景依赖于XRP在更广泛的数字资产市场大幅扩大的背景下，实现比比特币更强的增长势头。

XRP Ledger的潜在扩展是支撑这一论点的核心。该网络支持涉及支付、代币化及其他金融活动的应用程序，为XRP提供了增加采用率的潜在途径。

在这种情景下，比特币可能继续升值，而XRP则以更快的速度抢占市场份额。两者无需在一个萎缩的市场中竞争，XRP也有望最终缩小差距。

话虽如此，这种提出的“翻转”情景与比特币遭受重大崩溃的情景截然不同。此前，XRP在市值方面曾一度非常接近比特币。

值得注意的是，在2018年的加密市场繁荣期间，XRP的市值升至约1300亿至1500亿美元，而比特币的市值则在2500亿至2600亿美元左右。当时，XRP达到了比特币估值的一半左右。

此后，这一差距显著扩大。目前，XRP仅占比特币市值的一小部分，这意味着它需要持续的增长才能扭转这一差异。

As of press time, XRP was trading at $1.49, a gain of 6.44% in the past 24 hours.

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