以太坊的夏季动态

Part 1: Capital Distribution Map at the beginning of 2026

This article continues the previous description of the capital distribution of Ethereum in early 2026, advances the timeline to June, the beginning of the summer cycle, and tracks the actual flow trajectory of capital from June 1 to September 1.

Throughout the summer, the total assets of the "Aggregate Top 10,000 addresses" increased by US$13.9 billion, but the number of native ETH held fell by nearly 900,000. At the same time, 3.6 million ETH were added to Ethereum's pledge volume. These two seemingly opposing trends form the starting point for this analysis: the summer market rebound was not a simple return of capital, but a profound shift in the form, use and concentration of capital.

Analytical methodology

This research is based on the "Aggregate Ethereum Address Wealth List", which uses Total Balance Usd as an indicator to summarize the dollar valuations of ETH, ERC-20 tokens and stablecoins. This method is fundamentally different from the traditional method of ranking only by ETH holdings. It should be noted that the data for the top 10,000 names is a monthly snapshot, the address set may change between different dates, and the ranking has excluded token contract addresses.

Dollar wealth increased, but ETH holdings decreased.

The value of the dollar of the "aggregated top 10,000 addresses" showed a V-shaped trend: it was US$339.3 billion on June 1, fell to a trough of US$293.7 billion on July 1, and then rose to US$303.8 billion in August, reaching US$353.2 billion on September 1. A net increase of $13.9 billion throughout the summer.

然而，其持有的原生ETH数量却反向移动。夏季期间，原生ETH从约5410万枚降至5310万枚，跌幅近90万枚（1.7%）。8月的数据尤为典型：从美元角度看，这些地址中ETH部分的市值激增32.8%（从986亿美元增至1310亿美元）。乍看之下，这似乎是大户在大量买入ETH，但实际上物理层面的ETH持仓几乎未增长：ETH组件美元价值的99%增长完全源于现有ETH的价格重估。

简而言之，财富榜上的地址确实变得更富有了，但这并非因为鲸鱼们积极买入ETH，而主要是估值效应所致。

投资组合结构也发生了变化。夏季期间，稳定币余额下降了8.3%，而非稳定类ERC-20代币在季末比6月水平高出约1.6%。尽管在夏季中期下跌时稳定币占比曾上升，但在8月的反弹中急剧下降。虽然这不能直接证明稳定币转换为ETH，但它表明复苏并非价格的简单基准重置：观察到的资本结构发生了明显转变。

当项目增长源于自身代币

为了区分外部资本与绑定于项目自身代币的价值，分析引入了“印刷机指数”（Printing Press Index, PPI）：

PPI = 项目地址中自有代币价值 / 项目地址中所有ERC-20代币总价值

A higher PPI means a greater proportion of the project token balance comes from its own tokens, so we need to be more cautious when interpreting "aggregate balance growth" as external capital inflows. Summer data shows how this indicator dramatically changes the understanding of "project growth":

• Uniswap: Balances ended the summer up by approximately US$773 million (+39.5%). Of this, approximately US$648 million in growth came from its native UNI tokens, accounting for 84% of the total gain. The project's PPI rose to 57.3% from 45.9%.
• Chainlink: The effect is even more significant: the attributable balance increased by approximately US$507 million, while LINK's value in the project's own address increased by US$550 million. In other words, native token growth accounted for 108.6% of all net gains: all other assets held by the project collectively shrank during this period. PPI climbed from 89.8% to 92.4%.
• World Liberty Financial: This cryptocurrency project co-founded by members of the Trump family provides an extreme negative case. As of September 1, approximately US$3.8 billion of its ERC-20 value consisted of its native WLFI tokens, pushing its PPI up to 98.2%.

This value is economically real, but it is not equivalent to external capital. $100 million in external assets and $100 million in project-owned tokens represent very different balance sheets. This is why the next step in wealth list analysis is moving beyond simply measuring the value of the total dollar to assessing the quality of growth: an in-depth analysis of what drives the increase in balances.

ETH并未在财富榜中积累，而是变得更具生产力

第一部分证明了最大的流动性地址并未积累原生ETH，但质押层揭示了截然相反的趨勢。

夏季期间，活跃质押量从3930万枚增至4290万枚，增加了360万枚（9.1%）。值得注意的是，即使在美元估值下降期间，质押量仍在攀升：截至8月1日，尽管质押ETH的总美元价值从790亿美元降至772亿美元，但质押量已升至4150万枚。

为了验证这种对比，分析视野扩展至更广泛的观测范围（约29,000个大额地址，暂时重新包含代币合约以计入WETH合约内的底层ETH）。夏季期间，流动性和封装ETH余额减少了约180万枚，而质押吸收了额外的360万枚ETH。

这种方向性转变每月保持一致：流动/封装余额下降，而质押扩张。虽然无法直接追踪每一个ETH单位是否转入特定验证者存款，从而禁止确凿的1:1转移证明，但其巨大的规模和同步性使得质押成为解释这一大规模流动的最合理原因。ETH正离开流动性余额，但质押表明大部分资金正在被投入使用，而非简单地离开生态系统。

Ether.fi：同一笔质押ETH的新形态

Ether.fi（一种流动再质押协议）的案例展示了质押层本身是如何被重塑的。其归属余额从2.29亿美元跃升至12亿美元，但其中97.6%的增长出现在一个单一的官方Restaker合约中。这意味着变化主要反映了现有质押资本可见性的位置变化，而非总锁仓价值（TVL）的五倍增长。

这种重组紧随春季的压力测试之后：在Kelp rsETH事件后，Ether.fi处理了相当于其起始TVL 19.6%的提款。到8月，基础质押已与可选再质押分离，使额外收益和额外风险成为用户明确的选择。

这场危机带来了一个近乎悖论的积极结果：行业变得更加谨慎，架构更加透明，用户对质押与再质押风险的界限也更加清晰。

智能合约资本变得更加头部集中

在整个“聚合前10,000名地址”中，智能合约实际上在夏季失去了阵地。其数量从1,722个降至1,570个，总资本从886亿美元缩减至865亿美元。

然而，在财富榜的最顶端，情况则相反。在前100名地址中，智能合约资本从416亿美元增长至447亿美元。通过合同资本集中度的视角来看，这一趋势更加 stark：6月时，前100名地址持有前10,000名地址中所有智能合约资本的约47.0%；到9月，这一份额已超过半数，达到51.7%。

这种集中可能反映两种不同的动态：资本主动整合到顶级合约，或者排名较低的合约价值缩水更快。数据无法区分这两种情况，但无论哪种情况，结构性转变都是清晰的。

增长最快的资本位于已知项目标签之外

本季最后一个重大转变不在于资产构成，而在于归属层级。在整个项目归属范围内，总观测资本在夏季增长了约4.6%（从3695亿美元增至3865亿美元）。然而，未归属地址的扩张速度要快得多：从1843亿美元增至2035亿美元，增幅达10.4%。

因此，其在总观测资本中的份额从49.9%上升至52.6%，意味着到了夏季末，超过一半的追踪资本 reside 在没有明确项目标签的地址中。相比之下，三类主要的已知基础设施类别——中心化交易所/传统金融（-1.6%）、去中心化金融（+3.5%）和桥接/L2（-6.1%）——合计收缩了1.5%。因此，未归属地址成为了整个样本的主要增长引擎。

表面上看，既定项目标签之外的余额增长速度超过了此处追踪的已知加密基础设施。夏季最强的资本增长发生在每个人都在关注的基础设施标签之外。

最终洞察：从余额到行为

The first part redraws the map of Ethereum's wealth. The second part reveals that even if the market rebounds to almost the same amount of dollars, capital within the ecosystem returns in fundamentally different forms.

Ethereum's maximum balance recovered during the summer, but the underlying capital did not return to square one. ETH has become more productive through pledges; for several major projects, balance growth has been driven mainly by its own tokens; smart contract capital has become more concentrated; and the fastest-growing capital is outside the traditional project label.

The market has recovered, but its capital structure has not been reset.