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XRP XRP价格再次承压，技术面与链上数据呈现截然相反的信号
XRP的价格再次面临压力，在遭到1.62美元区域拒绝后，目前在1.49美元附近交易。最新的一轮下跌将XRP推回了重要的短期支撑区间。Vincent Van Code分析的技术指标目前描绘出一幅看跌的画面。然而，Santiment最新的链上数据却显示出积极的迹象。虽然XRP的短期图表指向持续的疲软，但其365天MVRV（已实现市值/已实现价值）表明，过去一年活跃的交易者正持有大量的未实现亏损；Santiment认为，从长期的角度来看，这种情况变得越来越有趣。
Vincent Van Code看到更多的下行风险
Van Code的数据显示，XRP约为1.4894美元，下跌了5.55%，其中四个技术指标看跌，无一看涨。他的分析重点在于从约1.62美元区域的拒绝反弹。随后，XRP跌至关键指数移动平均线（EMA）下方，而相对强弱指数（RSI）跌破30进入超卖区域。同时，MACD柱状图大幅转负。综合来看，Van Code认为这些指标指向强劲的看跌动能，且修正行情继续的可能性增加。
需要关注的关键水平是1.4942美元，这是近期的摆动低点支撑。XRP目前已在该区域附近交易，使得当前价格显得尤为重要。XRP在1.49美元的支撑位交易，大多数标签显示看跌信号。当前的下跌趋势可能会继续：XRP/USDT在接近1.6200美元的高点经历了急剧的拒绝，目前正处于陡峭的调整阶段。
他的仪表盘将1.6182美元识别为阻力位。若能恢复至该区域并最终突破，将显著改善短期结构。然而，如果持续在1.4942美元下方交易，XRP将面临更低支撑位的脆弱性。
这里有一个重要的反面观点：RSI低于30表明在该特定动量衡量标准下，抛售已经变得极端。超卖状况可以在强劲下跌中持续存在，因此这并不自动构成反转信号，但这确实意味着追逐下行也伴随着自身的风险。
Santiment的XRP数据讲述了不同的故事
Santiment正在通过完全不同的视角审视XRP。其图表比较了XRP、Dogecoin、Bitcoin、Ethereum和Chainlink的365天MVRV比率。这一指标本质上衡量的是相关持有群体相对于其成本基础的利润或亏损情况。
来源：X/@Santiment
The data varies greatly. The 365-day MVRV for XRP is approximately-11.75%, while Dogecoin is even lower, approximately-19.26%. In contrast, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink are slightly above zero in Sanitation's chart. This means that the average XRP token represented by this MVRV group is in an unrealized loss state.
Sanitation interprets deeply negative MVRV readings as potentially favorable from a long-term risk-reward perspective. The reason is simple: When most participants in the market are already "underwater"(losing money), there are not many holders holding profits that can be realized immediately. However, a negative MVRV does not mean that XRP has hit bottom. Assets can remain below zero or delve into negative territory as prices continue to fall.
See also: ChatGPT predicts that XRP will have a surprising ending in 2026!
Which XRP signal is more important?
Both may be true because they measure completely different things. Van Code is examining the immediate price structure and momentum of XRP. His indicators show sellers are controlling the short-term trend, with $1.4942 under pressure, while $1.6182 serves as a significant resistance level.
Sanitation is examining the profitability of market participants over the longer term. Its data shows that the losses of XRP holders are much greater than those of comparable BTC, ETH and LINK groups.
这就形成了一种不寻常的局面：XRP在短期内可以保持技术面上的看跌，同时在长期估值和持有者盈利能力的角度上变得更具吸引力。就目前而言，1.49美元是即时的战场。失去该区域将加强Van Code的看跌技术论点。但随着XRP进一步跌破长期市场参与者的成本基础，其MVRV可能变得更加负面——这可能加强Santiment所关注的长期逆向投资布局。
