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Cardano 站稳 $0.25 上方，DEX 交易量飙升 2,965%，技术指标出现背离信号

2026-09-28 18:19:11

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Cardano (ADA) 进入盘整阶段，关键阻力位博弈持续

周一，Cardano (ADA) 在经历上周 11.5% 的强劲上涨后，进入了盘整阶段。尽管上方动能依然存在，但 ADA 继续交投于关键的 0.26 美元阻力位下方，显示出交易者之间的不确定性仍未消散。

价格走势与关键阻力位分析

ADA 最新交易价格为 0.2537 美元，反映出稳步前行的态势，但在近期交易中反复遭遇 0.26 美元关口的拒绝。该代币曾在 9 月 23 日短暂测试 0.26 美元水平，随后在一天内回落至 0.24 美元以下。

目前，交易者正密切关注 0.26 美元这一关键点位。若四小时K线能够明确收盘于该阈值之上，将为价格进一步上行打开大门，目标可能指向 0.27 美元，甚至下一波行情中的 0.030 美元。然而，如果卖压加剧，ADA 可能会跌破 0.25 美元，而 0.20 美元区域被视为下一个重要支撑位（该位置上次测试于 9 月中旬）。

衍生品市场信号分歧

CoinGlass 数据显示，Cardano 的多空比率为 0.63，处于月度低位附近，暗示市场整体偏向看跌。比率低于 1.0 通常表明空头头寸增加，反映了交易者对潜在价格回调的预期。

与此同时，截至 9 月 17 日，Cardano 的资金费率转为正值，达到 0.0050%。这表明多头持仓者正在向空头支付费用——这种动态传统上被视为看涨信号。多空比率的看跌倾向与资金费率的看涨表现形成了鲜明对比，凸显了 Cardano 衍生品市场中情绪的分歧。

期权市场活动也急剧下降，交易量暴跌 92.94% 至 6,590 美元，未平仓合约微降至 374,920 美元。同期，总期货未平仓合约下降了 3.71%，至 6.0528 亿美元。

Cardano 的期货指标显示出了大规模鲸鱼操作和显著的卖压。CryptoQuant 分析师警告称，在最新一轮反弹之后，现货市场和衍生品市场均显示出过热的迹象。

去中心化交易所活跃度飙升与技术前景

基于 Cardano 的去中心化交易所 (DEX) 活动激增。DeFiLlama 报告称，周交易量环比增长了 2,965%，推动 30 天 DEX 交易量达到 2.4831 亿美元。然而，日均 DEX 交易额仅为 168 万美元，这表明大部分交易量源于孤立的事件爆发，而非持续性的活动。

On the technical side, ADA remains committed to its key moving average, remaining above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $0.215, the 100-day EMA of $0.209, and the 200-day EMA of $0.239. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 55.54, above the neutral midpoint, while the MACD indicator showed weakening bullish momentum, with a value of 0.0034, slightly below the 0.0041 signal line.

Technical analyst Jesse Olson points to an emerging pattern of weekly buy confirmations. He observed bullish conditions on both daily and weekly charts and noted that potential biweekly confirmation signals were coming. Olson raised the question of whether Cardano was "dead", arguing that technical indicators point to continued market vitality over multiple time frames.

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Market background and latest ADA trends

随着 ADA 徘徊在 0.26 美元下方，更广泛的市场焦点依然集中在此。同一时刻，Bitcoin 交易价格接近 84,244 美元，Ethereum 报 2,679 美元，XRP 持稳于 1.51 美元。加密货币总市值约为 2.98 万亿美元，Cardano 的市值达到 95.2 亿美元。

Cardano 最新价格为 0.25691420 美元，位于关键阻力位之下，使市场参与者密切关注未来几个交易时段内是否会出现持续的突破或反转。

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