Bitcoin holds on to $82,000 on anniversary of $19 billion plunge: Will another plunge come?

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Bitcoin Trading Dynamics and Market Analysis

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately US$82,634, up 0.4% in the past 24 hours. The trend follows four days of selling and a turbulent start to early October. The current total market value is US$1.65 trillion. Market participants are focusing on a core question: Is this a short break in the decline or the beginning of a real recovery?

Today's BTC price details

As of now, the price of Bitcoin is US$82,634.9, up US$329.22 within the day. The circulation supply is 20.09 million pieces, and the maximum supply limit is 21 million pieces.

Futures trading volume fell 46.18% to $43.15 billion; options trading volume fell 44.20% to $4.32 billion. Lower trading volumes usually mean traders are on the sidelines. The amount of open interest was US$51.76 billion, down 1.85%; the amount of open interest in options was US$38.12 billion, down 2.37%.

Reasons for the decline in BTC prices in October

At the beginning of the month, the market experienced a sharp decline. Prices plunged nearly $7,000 in 48 hours. Ethereum (ETH) fell by 10%, and many altcoins lost 15% to 20% of their value. About $1 billion in long positions were liquidated.

Analyst Ash Crypto pointed out that the decline was affected by multiple factors such as panic in the artificial intelligence sector, U.S. government-related token movements, war news headlines and negative memories of historical markets on October 10. The latest news has calmed down, selling pressure has eased, and buyers are trying to re-enter.

Will there be another crypto market crash?

A year ago today, more than US$19 billion of positions were cleared in the cryptocurrency market in 24 hours, still the largest single-day liquidation event on record. Crypto Rover said the scale of the incident exceeded the LUNA, COVID-19 epidemic and FTX collapse. Charts at the time showed that BTC fell 12.73%, ETH fell 14.39%, and XRP plunged 53.40%.

In contrast, the market appears calmer today. The total liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was only US$49.29 million. Throughout the day, short losses exceeded long losses, which is the opposite of the characteristics of the crash.

Time period Total clearing amount Long clearing short clearing clearing 1 hour $14.21K$11.73K$2.48K4 hours $421.36K$149.37K$271.99K12 hours $4.58M$3.62M$963.45K24 hours $49.29M$13.27M$36.02M Are investors selling BTC at a loss?

Sanitation data showed the decline was more like profit-taking than a panic sell-off. From October 2 to 8, holders realized profits exceeding losses by more than $3.3 billion. No day that week closed with a net realized loss. This is consistent with recent profit-taking weeks of approximately $3.4 billion at the end of September and approximately $3 billion at the end of August.

In comparison, the net loss for the period from August 14 to 20 was approximately US$1 billion, and 6 out of 7 days were in a net loss. It should be noted that the data covers the entire network, so some recent buyers may still be losing money.

Is a BTC ETF an inflow or outflow?

The U.S. spot BTC ETF attracted US$21.13 million on October 9. Total inflows since launch are US$57.11 billion. Net assets are US$105.84 billion, accounting for 6.38% of the market value.

Fund issuers 'daily net inflow IBIT (BlackRock)+$22.38MHODL (VanEck)+$2.33MFBTC (Fidelity)-$3.58M All U.S. Spot BTC ETF+$21.13M Is the current BTC bullish or bearish?

The overall long-short ratio is 0.9646, which is slightly biased towards the bearish side. But large traders seemed more confident. The position ratio of top Binance traders is 1.6095 and the account ratio is 1.5867. The regular account ratio on Binance and OKX is close to 1.51.

Will Bitcoin rise in October?

No one knows for sure. Analysts have mixed views on the next step. Ali Charts shows two fractal paths: in a bullish scenario, Bitcoin will repeat its 2023 pattern and move towards $92,000; if the fractal fails, further downward trends may occur first. He marked $82,470 as a critical level.

Ash Crypto expects a short squeeze, pushing BTC above US$90,000 by the end of October. He also believes ETH could reach $3,000. He pointed out that retail investors were panic-selling, while some short calls fell to $40,000. But he sees this as a prelude to a reversal and is very optimistic about the fourth quarter. He acknowledged that there could be a deeper correction, with the bottom line being the 50-week moving average, currently near $77,000.

BTC Price Prediction: Key Support and Resistance Levels

Technical traders pointed out that $79,600 near Supertrend indicator is the key support level from which BTC rebounded. If that support is valid, the next target area is $84,000 to $86,000. If it falls below this level, the price could move closer to $78,000.

价格水平含义$92,000Ali Charts 看涨分形目标$90,000Ash Crypto 轧空目标$84,000 - $86,000若支撑位稳固，下一目标区域$82,470分形图上的关键水平$79,600Supertrend 支撑位$78,000若支撑失效，下一下跌目标$77,00050 周移动平均线大多数比特币价格预测观点都基于这些相同的关键点位。BTC 尚未打破其更大的上升趋势，但成交量依然疲软。