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BTC Bitcoin's $71,000 target attracts attention
When Bitcoin's trading price was at $77,977, analysts turned their attention to the key level of $71,000. In the "head and shoulders" pattern formed on the four-hour chart, the loss of the neckline further exacerbates the possibility of a decline. However, if this key support level is regained, the above bearish scenario will expire.
Bitcoin recorded a decline of more than 1% at the beginning of September, and its price trend has entered a critical area on the technical side. Analysts CryptoGoos and Wealthmanager pointed out that there is a clear head-and-shoulder pattern on the four-hour chart.
The neckline of this form has been broken downward, and Bitcoin is currently conducting a backtest of this position. The key question facing the market at this time is: Can Bitcoin regain its neckline support?
Wealthmanager analysis believes that if the backtest fails, the price may drop to the US$71,000 mark. Conversely, if Bitcoin can regain its neck line and establish a solid position, the downside scenario will be falsified. Therefore, in the current form, the core of determining the direction lies in the gains and losses of the neckline itself.
The historical September effect is once again in focus
In addition to technical factors, historical data shows that Bitcoin's performance in September tends to be negative. Although Bitcoin recorded a 24.95% increase in August, the strongest August market since 2017, a review of historical data shows that a strong August is often followed by a September correction.
CoinGlass data showed that in the past four August cycles that ended with sharp gains, subsequent September ended negative. The specific decline is as follows:
- 2013:-1.76%
- 2017:-7.44%
- 2020:-7.51%
- 2021:-7.03%
The average September decline in these four cycles is 7.24%. Based on the September opening price of $78,516, the decline points to around $72,831. However, it is worth noting that this sample only contains four cycles, and Bitcoin has ended with a rise in the last three September months. In addition, in none of the three cycles, August's gains reached this strong level of 24.95%. Therefore, seasonal data alone is not enough to conclude that Bitcoin will inevitably fall.
The main support level is in the range of US$62,000 to US$65,000
Although the technical pattern points to the US$71,000 target, on-chain data reveals the support area further below. Glassnode pointed out that the accumulation area formed during the summer consolidation is between $62,000 and $65,000, which constitutes the structured support base for Bitcoin.
Glassnode also mentioned that there is a significant amount of long liquidation risk in the US$60,000 to US$63,000 range. On the other hand, there is also an important area of supply resistance above current prices. The $83,000 to $86,000 range, where long-term investors are concentrated, is a key resistance band that must be overcome as prices rise.
To sum up, Bitcoin faces three different price areas: US$71,000 as a short-term technical target, US$62,000 to 65,000 as structural support, and US$83,000 to 86,000 as a supply area for upward resistance.
Which are the key test points?
The current focus of the market is not directly looking at US$71,000, but on whether Bitcoin can regain its neck line and stand firm. If it can be successfully recovered, the bearish logic of top and shoulders will weaken; if it is rejected, the target of $71,000 will receive renewed attention. In a more intense wave of selling, the $62,000 to $65,000 structured support area pointed out by Glassnode will become the focus of observation.
Therefore, the primary test facing Bitcoin is not whether it will hit US$71,000, but whether it can regain the neckline support it lost before.
This content is based on general market data and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct independent research.
