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Following
ETH Ethereum exchange positions fell to a three-year low, and the MVRV indicator turned positive.
Since May 2023, Ethereum (ETH)'s positions on the exchange have dropped by 38%, currently standing at approximately 15.5 million. At the same time, the market capital-to-realized value ratio (MVRV) turned positive after nine months of negative value, and the price remained above $2438.
Key Points
- Exchange positions are close to 15.5 million ETH, the lowest level in many years.
- MVRV momentum turned positive in late August, after experiencing a negative period of about nine months.
- Although market volatility continues to compress, ETH prices remain above the support level of US$2,438.85.
Exchange position analysis
data shows that the ETH balance on the exchange is approximately 15.5 million, which is the lowest level in many years, down 38% from the high of nearly 25.2 million in May 2023. Since June 2025, this downward trend has accelerated.
At that time, the balance of the exchange was still close to 21.5 million pieces, which meant that about 6 million ETH pieces had been withdrawn from the trading platform. As the saleable supply continued to shrink, the market liquidity structure was changing. Lower exchange balances can reduce the amount of liquidity that can be sold immediately, but this in and of itself does not determine the direction of prices in broader market movements. This distinction is crucial in the current context.
ETH traded around $2464 after experiencing a daily decline of 0.87%, but remained above the $2,438.85 region where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is located. The region previously limited a rally from mid-March to mid-May, but old resistance levels have now turned into support.
ETH MVRV Kinetic Indicator
Ethereum's MVRV ratio is close to 1.05, above its 160-day moving average of approximately 0.88. The indicator crossed the trend line in late August, ending a period of negative momentum that had lasted for about nine months since November 2025, while the moving average itself began to show an upward curve. This signal is relatively new.
Technical conditions also point to greater changes in the market: weekly trading volume has continued to decline since late August, and the Bollinger Band width percentile is at the bottom of its range. After the RSI indicator fell back to around 60 from around 80 in late August, momentum remained positive but was less extreme than during previous surges.
If ETH can continue to stand above US$2,438.85, it may open up room for upward movement towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of US$2,919.89, with an increase of about 18%; and if this support is lost, the chart structure will appear more limited before about US$1980. Recent historical data suggests that exchange withdrawals should not be regarded as bullish signals alone.
From September 2025 to June 2026, ETH prices fell from approximately US$4850 to approximately US$1550 despite the continued decline in exchange balances. This historical fact explains why new MVRV shifts need to be considered in conjunction with changes in supply. During this period, the decline in balances failed to prevent a price decline of about 68%, highlighting the important background information that valuation momentum provides for the current market landscape. A simple contraction in supply is not enough to constitute a good basis.
