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Following
BTC Core Points
- U.S. Treasury yields climbed to historic highs, with 30-year Treasury yields hitting their highest level since June 2007.
- The outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETF has intensified, with net outflows for three consecutive trading days. The market is worried about weak spot demand.
- Affected by the U.S. producer price index (PPI) exceeding expectations and crude oil prices exceeding US$100 per barrel, inflationary pressures have warmed up, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September has risen to about 72%.
- Bitcoin prices fell to the US$77,189 range, but Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin has hit the bottom of the current four-year cycle.
Inflation data exceeded expectations and soaring energy prices triggered risk aversion
On Thursday, Bitcoin fell below the US$77,000 mark, mainly due to a "perfect storm" formed by high inflation data, rising oil prices and rising bond yields, leading to sell-off in risk-sensitive assets. Affected by this, the price of Bitcoin, the world's leading digital asset leader, fell 1.76% to close at US$77,189.
This fluctuation followed the August producer price index (PPI) data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data showed that PPI rose by 5.4% year-on-year in August, slightly higher than market expectations of 5.3%. In addition, July's PPI data was also revised upwards, further exacerbating investor anxiety as the market closely follows Friday's upcoming consumer price index (CPI) report.
At the same time, energy markets are also putting pressure on inflation expectations. Affected by escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) exceeded the US$100 per barrel mark for the first time since late May, and Brent crude also climbed above US$105 per barrel.
Treasury yields hit multi-year highs, and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are expected to heat up
Driven by inflation and oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply. The 30-year Treasury bond yield hit 5.353%, the highest since June 2007; the 10-year Treasury bond yield, a benchmark indicator, reached 4.968%, the highest level since November 2023.
Bond markets remain under pressure despite the U.S. Treasury's $6 billion debt repurchase program. "The bond market is actually fighting the U.S. Treasury," financial analysis platform The Kobeissi Letter pointed out.
Affected by the release of PPI data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates have risen sharply. According to CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has soared to nearly 72%, from about 64% previously. Earlier, the European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday, its second rate hike in 2026.
Spot ETF funds continue to flow out, and market demand faces testing
Cryptocurrency market analyst Ted Pillows warned that demand for spot bitcoin has shrunk to where it was when bitcoin was traded at $69,000. He pointed out: "Either spot buyers bear the responsibility of pulling up, otherwise the price will inevitably fall to $70,000."
According to Wu Blockchain, the Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded a net outflow of US$283 million on September 10, marking the third consecutive trading day of capital outflows for Bitcoin exchange-traded products. On-chain data analysis also showed that the risk of Bitcoin sellers has dropped to an abnormally low threshold, and selling around the $80,000 price level has almost disappeared.
Industry leaders are optimistic about long-term prospects, improved regulatory environment
Despite sharp short-term market volatility, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed optimism in an interview with Bloomberg TV. He believes that Bitcoin has established a bottom in the current four-year market cycle. Armstrong said that the regulatory framework of the crypto industry is showing signs of improvement, and the Clarity Act is expected to pass smoothly in the Senate, which provides a positive signal for the long-term development of the industry.
