Bitcoin and Ethereum rise, inflation data keeps Fed outlook stable

Bitcoin and Ethereum rose in rolling 24-hour data, and August inflation data maintained the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations unchanged.

In the latest CoinGecko snapshot data, Bitcoin and Ethereum both showed positive rolling 24-hour gains. Among them, the price of Bitcoin is US$77,196 and the price of Ethereum is US$2,554.21. Although consumer price index (CPI) data released in August showed that the market's most likely Fed interest rate outcome remained unchanged, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike increased.

Overview of key information

Based on the latest market snapshots, Bitcoin and Ethereum have both recorded positive growth in the past 24 hours. August CPI data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. This data did not change the market's mainstream judgment on the Fed's policy path, but the probability of a rate hike implied by Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) derivatives increased after the data was released.

Market Trends: Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum Performance

In the obtained CoinGecko research snapshot, the Bitcoin transaction price is US$77,196, a rolling 24-hour increase of +0.07%. It should be noted that this data reflects changes within a rolling time window, rather than a rate of return calculated directly from the time of CPI release. Percentage values have been rounded to two decimal places. Since the interface does not provide a last update timestamp, this data fluctuation cannot be directly attributed to the release of CPI data. Relevant public asset pages may display updated values.

During the same time period, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin. Ethereum traded at US$2,554.21, a rolling 24-hour gain of +3.81%. Although both assets are on an upward trend, Ethereum's increase is about 55 times that of Bitcoin. Similarly, this data is only used as a snapshot reference and does not constitute proof of causality.

Market sentiment and macro background

Overall market sentiment is in a positive range. As of 00:00 UTC on September 11, 2026, the Fear Greed Index is 56, classified as "Greed". It should be noted that the index only provides background reference and does not indicate that price changes are driven by CPI data, which is different from the previous period when Bitcoin fell after the release of U.S. inflation data.

Impact of inflation data on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook

According to CNBC, the seasonally adjusted August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, both in line with Dow Jones Consensus forecasts. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than the expected 0.2 percentage points, and rose 2.4% year-on-year. Although the data release did not change the most likely policy outcome, market pricing became closer. Data shows that before the data was released, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike was close to 70%, but after the release, the probability rose to nearly 90%.

This market pricing is based on the policy benchmark set by the Federal Reserve at its July 28-29 meeting. At that time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 in favor and 3 against to maintain the federal funds target rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, and three dissidents tended to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Current market probabilities apply to future decisions, not the completed decision to suspend interest rates.

The next interest rate decision will be announced at the September 15-16 meeting, accompanied by an "Economic Outlook Summary". It is currently widely expected across the country to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting. Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic pointed out that August's inflation data failed to provide evidence of continued cooling to support keeping interest rates unchanged, and rising energy prices have raised concerns about spillover from other prices and inflation expectations.

The significance of stable interest rate expectations for Bitcoin and Ethereum

Based on existing data, the simultaneous rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum and the rising expectations of interest rate hikes cannot establish a causal relationship for changes in cryptocurrency-driven Fed policy expectations. Because these 24 hours of data are rolling snapshots that lack the last update timestamp, it is impossible to establish a direct causal link with the release of CPI data.

The clear catalyst on the calendar is the September 15 - 16 FOMC resolution and its projection data, which is a key node based on the benchmark interest rate of 3.5%-3.75%. Whether the near 90% probability of raising interest rates can be maintained before that meeting, and how this macro factor affects the interaction between Ethereum's +3.81% gain and Bitcoin's flat +0.07% performance, will be measurable key issues. This is also reminiscent of similar scenarios in which expectations of interest rate hikes were rekindled due to oil shocks.

Disclaimer : This article is for reference only and does not constitute any financial or investment advice. There are significant risks in the cryptocurrency and digital asset markets. Be sure to conduct independent research before making any decisions.