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BTC 比特币跌破76,700美元“真实市场均值”，短期持有者成本基准面临考验
比特币价格已滑落至其“真实市场均值”（True Market Mean）下方。这一关键的链上成本基准指标由Glassnode设定为76,700美元。随着比特币连续第二个交易日收盘价低于该水平，市场出现进一步下探至71,300美元短期持有者成本基准的可能性。
比特币跌破76,700美元关键均线
Glassnode指出，比特币不仅跌破了76,700美元的“真实市场均值”，还创下了连续两个交易日的收盘新低。在重大成本基准位下方的单次收盘可能仅被视为市场噪音，但连续两次收盘则表明市场正在接受较低的价格区间。
Glassnode引用的71,300美元数据代表了短期持有者的总成本基准。这批投资者最近购入比特币，其未实现亏损往往对近期的抛压产生最显著的影响。向该价位靠拢将使更多近期买家陷入浮亏状态，这种动态此前曾在长期持有者向类似的成本基准压缩区域抛售539,000枚BTC时出现过。
“真实市场均值”衡量的是什么？
“真实市场均值”是一项链上指标，通过计算活跃市场参与者持有的比特币的已实现价格得出，并排除了那些多年未移动的长期休眠币。通过过滤掉由统计概率极低的卖家持有的供应，该指标能更紧密地近似市场中活跃硬币的平均成本基准。
Glassnode此前曾利用相关的成本基准来界定市场结构的转折点。该公司之前的分析将“处于盈利状态的比特币供应比例”作为辅助信号；当价格在“真实市场均值”下方交易时，盈利供应的比例会压缩，从而降低持有者进行分发的动力。Glassnode早前的研究还指出，罕见的Sigma级别移动可作为值得与成本基准交叉点一起跟踪的链上转折信号。
为何76,700美元这一水平至关重要
市场参与者将密切关注比特币能否以收盘价重新站稳76,700美元上方，还是继续在该水平下方盘整。若价格接受并维持在“真实市场均值”之上，则表明此前的下跌仅为价格插针而非结构性转变；若持续收于该水平之下，则71,300美元的短期持有者成本基准将成为下一个关键的链上参考点。
The company does not publish directional forecasts; its observations focus on the structural level and are designed to identify where the market is relative to the cost benchmark rather than forecast its next move. ARK Invest and Glassnode have previously collaborated on cost benchmarks and control threshold analysis, emphasizing that these benchmarks are a true positioning signal for institutional analysts.
Bitcoin's network fundamentals are independent of short-term cost benchmarks. The difficulty adjustment continues as planned, and the next halving cycle is on schedule, which means that no matter how spot prices trade relative to the "real market average" over a week, the long-term trajectory of supply issuance remains unaffected.
