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BTC 
ETH Bitcoin's market performance and future outlook in the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike
Although the Federal Reserve (FED) raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, Bitcoin did not encounter significant selling pressure in the early stages. In the face of the Federal Reserve's decision to raise policy rates by 25 basis points, bitcoin prices stubbornly remained at about $76,000. However, given that 16 of the 18 Fed policymakers expect to raise interest rates at least once more before the end of the year, this presents a new test for the cryptocurrency market.
How does the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase affect the Bitcoin price?
At Wednesday's meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points, raising the target interest rate range to 3.75% to 4%. Normally, raising interest rates will put pressure on stocks and other risky assets. Despite this, Bitcoin maintained a relatively stable trend before and after the announcement of the decision. During trading, BTC prices fluctuated around $76,663, rising 1.35% in the past 24 hours.
Talos Research analyst Cooper Duschang pointed out that the initial price response suggests that the market has largely digested the news ahead of schedule. According to Duschang's analysis, despite the decline in the stock market, Bitcoin has largely maintained its pre-resolution level, showing strong resilience.
What does an extra rate hike mean for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin's limited response to its first rate hike does not mean that future measures will be treated equally smoothly. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh told a news conference that inflation remains high and the U.S. economy appears to be strengthening. In addition, the Federal Reserve's updated economic forecast has also attracted much attention: 16 of the 18 policymakers expect to raise interest rates at least once before the end of the year.
Andrew Melville, director of research at Block Scholes, said that compared with the previous 25 basis point adjustment, the new interest rate hike may bring a more "hawkish" unexpected impact. Therefore, crypto investors should not only pay attention to the implemented interest rate decisions, but should also pay close attention to the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy signals.
Dynamics in the spot and derivatives markets
While Bitcoin prices seem calm, other areas of the market are experiencing ups and downs. According to Duschang data, in the past hour, the perpetual contract market has seen a net selling trend. Among them, Bitcoin had approximately US$82 million in net sales and Ethereum had US$68 million in net sales.
However, the spot market presents a different picture. Bitcoin recorded net spot purchases of approximately US$15.5 million. This shows that spot demand has partially offset selling pressure from the derivatives market. The flow of funds on the exchange also reflects investors being repositioned: About 2,170 BTC were transferred to the exchange after the interest rate hike, and another 1,260 BTC were subsequently withdrawn from the exchange.
比特币后续需警惕哪些风险？
近期的市场波动显示，投资者并非单纯寻求单边避险，而是在评估美联储的信号后调整仓位。核心问题在于，在当前支撑位和现货需求的背景下，若再次出现加息预期，这种态势能否持续。
DWF Labs市场洞察负责人Martin Lee也强调了美联储重新回归“鹰派”立场的风险。他认为，利率维持高位更长时间的预期，可能导致风险资产根据新环境进行重新定价。因此，尽管比特币守住当前价位至关重要，但未来一段时间内，市场对美联储进一步的紧缩信号保持高度警惕是必要的。
免责声明：本文内容不构成任何投资建议。市场存在高风险，投资者在做出决策前应进行独立研究。
