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BTC Bitcoin has recovered after experiencing severe shocks, but needs to break through multiple resistance to hit US$100,000 before the end of 2026.
Bitcoin is gradually recovering from another round of cruel market volatility. However, if we want to reach the $100,000 target by the end of 2026, a short-term rebound alone is not enough. BTC fell below the $75,000 mark earlier this week, but has now climbed back to levels close to $78,000. This sign of recovery is particularly noteworthy because Bitcoin has successfully absorbed two major negative factors: the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike since 2023, and the Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act.
More importantly, institutional demand shows signs of returning. According to the latest ETF fund flow data, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of US$159.5 million on September 17, reversing the previous two consecutive days of huge outflows.
The return signal of ETF funds is clear
The reversal of ETF funds is the clearest bullish signal. Data showed that the Bitcoin ETF lost $450.4 million on September 15,$295.9 million on September 16, and attracted $159.5 million in new funds in the subsequent trading hours. Previously, in early September, the ETF market experienced a strong inflow period, completing the strongest three-week consecutive inflow record so far in 2026.
Breaking US$80,000 is the key prerequisite
Bitcoin faces closer obstacles before the $100,000 goal becomes feasible. BTC has struggled repeatedly in the US$80,000 to US$82,000 range, making the region the first major breakthrough zone. Recent bitcoin price forecasts point out that after the CLARITY Act triggered a sell-off,$80,000 has become a key technical level.
The macro background is still full of challenges. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and 16 of 18 officials predict another rate hike this year. Despite this, Bitcoin remained close to $76,000 after the decision was announced. This resilience is crucial, but a high-interest rate environment remains a potential upper limit for risky assets.
Can it reach US$100,000 this year?
The path to the goal is relatively clear:
- US$80,000 - 82,000: Breaking through recent resistance
- US$90,000: Upward momentum accelerates
- US$100,000: Completed another 28% gain
Options traders have shown interest in these two prices, with open interest in recent December mainly concentrated on the strike prices of $80,000 and $100,000. However, downside risks remain. On-chain analysis shows that around $71,300 is support for short-term holders; if the current range is broken, stronger support is between $62,000 and $65,000.
比特币已经挺过了美联储加息、监管失望情绪以及ETF资金的急剧流出。现在，它需要完成更难的任务：将80,000美元从天花板转化为坚实的支撑位。
