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比特币反弹面临新警示信号

2026-09-30 18:23:36
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Bitcoin bull market shows signs of fatigue, and short-term correction risks increase

Bitcoin's bull market is showing signs of pressure. On-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant pointed out that although the overall trend remains bullish, multiple indicators show growing risk of correction in the near term.

Profit-taking reaches a new high for 2026

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said that Bitcoin closed above the 365-day moving average last week, confirming the start of a new bull market. The company's "Bitcoin Bullmarket Score Index" is also at 90 out of 100 points, belonging to the "extremely bullish" range.

Despite this, Moreno pointed out that there are currently multiple signals that the rally is weakening. Short-term traders 'unrealized margins on the chain have climbed to 33%, the highest level since December 2024. Historically, when profit margins are at similar highs, traders have tended to take profits as more unrealized gains are available to lock in.

Data also shows that profit-taking has begun to occur. On September 22, Bitcoin holders achieved a profit of 25,700 BTC, which is the largest single-day profit-taking recorded in 2026.

Moreno said that after Bitcoin hit an eight-month high of $87,400, several indicators showed weakening momentum and a possible correction later.

Shrink demand increases downward pressure

现货和期货市场的比特币需求也在放缓。莫雷诺指出,即期 apparent 需求持续萎缩,过去30天内减少了17万枚BTC。“如果没有新的需求支撑,反弹难以延续。”莫雷诺说道,“鉴于即期需求仍处于收缩状态,且期货市场增长停滞,短期内维持上涨变得愈发困难。”

CryptoQuant 确定了三个主要支撑位,如果发生回调,价格可能在此企稳:接近80,000美元的365日均线、接近71,000美元的200日均线,以及交易者链上实现价格约67,000美元的水平。

莫雷诺表示,只要这些支撑位得以守住,向这些水平的回调将代表年轻牛市中的“健康整合”,而非趋势反转。

总体来看,市场结构依然看涨,但正进入一个短期卖方力量可能超越买方的阶段。目前而言,比特币能否坚守关键支撑位,将是判断后续走势最清晰的信号。

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