Once the indicator on this necklace turns positive, the price of Bitcoin may skyrocket

Bitcoin (BTC) was under pressure again today, falling nearly 2% to close at US$64,036. The entire cryptocurrency market also fell, with a drop of about 1.8%.

The crypto market still shows a cautious attitude towards risky assets, with the Fear and Greed Index stagnant at 34 points, in an obvious panic range. In addition, the United States launched a new military strike in the Gulf region, which further reduced investors 'willingness to put money into the cryptocurrency space.

Although the consumer price index released earlier this week was moderate, it did not produce a significant boost to the market, and investors did not enter the market in large numbers.

Therefore, Bitcoin is currently only following the trend of the broader market and does not show an independent market.

However, after in-depth analysis, it can be found that a key indicator in the chain is suppressing the rally. This situation still exists even as Whale continues to increase its holdings in Bitcoin.

Why Bitcoin's rise lacks key driving force

The latest data from CryptoQuant shows that demand for Bitcoin weakened again in the latest trading day. The chart tracks 30-day spot demand, futures demand and total demand, all below the neutral line, although Bitcoin prices have rebounded from June lows. This suggests that current buying activity has not yet reached the level needed to support a stronger rebound.

Cryptography analyst CW pointed out that although the outflow of funds in the futures market was basically the same as the previous day, the spot market recorded a larger outflow of funds.

Demand for $BTC fell further yesterday from the previous day. The outflow of funds from the futures market was similar to the previous day. However, there was a larger outflow of funds from the spot market. The real rebound in $BTC occurs when it is accompanied by positive demand. However, for now...

Spot demand is particularly important because it represents a direct purchase of Bitcoin rather than a leveraged futures position. Historical data shows that Bitcoin's strongest gains have been accompanied by continued positive spot demand, which the market has not yet met.

However, there is also an encouraging sign. Although overall demand remains negative, Giant Whale Address continues to increase its holdings of Bitcoin, which has helped Bitcoin prices rise hard despite overall market participation. If spot demand could turn positive, it would be a stronger confirmation that new money was flowing into the market, rather than just limited buying activity pushing prices higher.

The biggest catalyst that could push bitcoin prices higher

One event that traders are watching closely is the CLARITY Act. The Senate returned to work on July 13, which means they have about 20 working days before recess in August. Most expect they will have to vote by August 7 or 8 at the latest.

The bill had previously passed the House of Representatives with a vote of 294 to 134, showing bipartisan support. At the same time, it also passed the Senate Banking Committee by a vote of 15 to 9.

But the problem is that to push the bill through, about seven Democratic lawmakers need to vote in favor of it across the party, otherwise the required 60 votes will not be able to be reached. Obtaining approval before the recess will be an important step towards comprehensive legislation for regulation of the U.S. crypto market.

Internet development also continues to support Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Adoption of Lightning Network is expanding, and companies including Block are launching tap-to-pay bitcoin payment solutions aimed at reducing transaction costs. Continued improvements in Layer 2 infrastructure are expected to increase Bitcoin's usage in daily payments and enhance its adoption over time.

Another event worthy of attention appeared in this week's chain activity. A dormant wallet moved 5,908 BTC (worth approximately $382.7 million) for the first time since December 2017. The tokens were moved to a new wallet rather than an exchange, which means that despite the size of the transfer, there is no evidence of direct selling pressure.

Bitcoin Chart Analysis: Are the bulls still in control?

We analyzed the Bitcoin chart and found that even after the recent decline, the overall pattern remains impressive. Bitcoin held on to the higher lows it has formed since late June, a sign that buyers are still stepping in to defend its larger cycle despite resistance as it approaches $65,000.

The momentum indicator is also in a relatively balanced state. The Ultimate Oscillator reported 57, in the neutral region, and no extreme conditions occurred. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator has retreated from overbought territory and is currently reading 69 and 62. This is consistent with what we have observed on the chain: giant whales are still increasing their holdings, but regular demand from the overall market has not kept up.

If investors are optimistic about the market outlook, the bulls first need to stand back at US$65,000. After that, the next target will be near the June high, about $66,000.

On the downside, the US$63,000 to US$63,500 range is the key support level. If the region breaks and market sentiment continues to deteriorate, we may see prices fall further back to $62,000.

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Our Bitcoin price outlook: Demand will determine the direction of the next breakthrough

Bitcoin prices continue to benefit from the increase in the giant whale and the still-solid technical structure, but the missing link is stronger spot demand. Until new purchases return, it may be difficult for the rally to turn into a sustained breakthrough.

If spot demand turns positive again against the backdrop of continued buying by giant whales, bitcoin prices will gain a more solid foundation and start a new round of gains. If negative demand continues, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within the near-term range even if large holders continue to increase their holdings.

FAQs

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in 2026?

Yes, it is possible for Bitcoin to hit US$150,000 in 2026, but forecasts and analysts are divided widely on this. While some industry experts and Wall Street institutions view quantitative easing and institutional capital inflows as catalysts, forecasting platforms such as Kalshi currently believe that the probability of this occurring this year is low.

How much will a Bitcoin be worth by 2030?

The consensus in the financial community on the price of a Bitcoin (BTC) in 2030 ranges widely, from a cautious US$150,000 to an extremely bullish US$1.5 million or more, depending on institutional adoption rates and macroeconomic factors. Since no one can predict the future prices of highly volatile digital assets with absolute accuracy, analysts break down forecasts into multiple scenarios.

Will Bitcoin rise to $1 million?

The artificial intelligence model states: "Bitcoin has exceeded expectations many times, but investors should remember that large-scale adoption and macroeconomic shifts rarely go smoothly." Still, Claude concluded that the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $1 million cannot be ruled out.