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BTC 
ETH Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, released a new article, arguing that the current artificial intelligence investment boom hides the seeds of a financial crisis more devastating than the Internet bubble, and Bitcoin may become one of the biggest beneficiaries when this crisis finally comes to an end.
Credit Story, Not Equity Story
Hayes published an article titled "Ambiguity" on August 4, 2026, pointing out that the boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure may end in a credit crisis rather than an Internet-style equity collapse.
This distinction is crucial. In the 2000 crash, overvalued technology stocks fell sharply, but losses were largely limited to the stock market. Hayes believes that current artificial intelligence construction is structurally different.
He described the AI boom as "like a credit story in 2008 rather than a profit story in 2000" and warned that even if profit demand began to slow, banks, insurance companies, private credit funds and infrastructure investors continued to fund project construction.
Losses arise when weaker projects cannot generate enough cash to pay off debt, lease or interest obligations.
The scale of construction supports this concern.
Hayes estimates that from November 2022 to mid-2026, ultra-large enterprises and artificial intelligence infrastructure companies issued approximately US$1.5 trillion in debt, almost exactly matching the US$1.5 trillion increase in M2 money supply over the same period.
In his view, this dynamic explains why Bitcoin has performed poorly amid expanding dollar liquidity.
Bitcoin's poor performance is due to the fact that new US dollar issues are already booked. When those dollars evaporated in a credit event and the central bank responded, the money had nowhere to go, and Bitcoin was the only safe haven with a fixed supply.
Monetary easing as a catalyst for cryptocurrencies
Hayes 'core thesis is that the chain reaction after a bubble bursts is more important than the bubble itself. If AI-related credit losses spread widely, he expects the central bank to respond with monetary easing, the same script used after the 2008 financial crisis. In his view, the new liquidity will have fewer effective exports than in previous cycles, making assets with a fixed supply like Bitcoin a natural destination for capital seeking asylum.
Alphabet has raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to between US$195 billion and US$205 billion amid growing demand, which fully demonstrates the current level of investment by major technology companies. Increasingly, this level of spending is funded through debt rather than operating cash flow, which is the vulnerability Hayes points to.
This article comes as Hayes has been publicly adjusting his portfolio.
In his June article,"Reality Check," the BitMEX co-founder said that Maelstrom had cut several cryptocurrency positions while retaining Bitcoin and Ethereum as core positions.
"Ambiguity" expands this macro framework, pointing out that monetary easing is the mechanism that ultimately drives the broad recovery of cryptocurrencies.
