Does XRP reach $100 or $589? Why market value is not a limiting factor

XRP price forecast: Market value is not a limiting factor

XRP price forecasts often attract immediate criticism due to the implied market value of the cryptocurrency. According to Bird, a cryptocurrency commentator and developer, this reaction stems from misunderstandings about how market capitalization works and long-term value assessments of the digital asset market.

In a detailed tweet, Bird urged investors not to focus too much on current market cap numbers and pay more attention to the long-term growth potential of XRP ledgers as tokenization and continued expansion of institutional adoption.

Bird explained that market value is calculated by multiplying the final transaction price by the amount of circulating supply. He emphasized that this figure does not represent the total amount of money invested in a certain asset.

Instead, prices are determined by marginal transactions, which means that a relatively small amount of new capital can significantly increase the overall valuation of the asset. Therefore, Bird believes that negating XRP price targets based solely on market value ignores how financial markets actually work.

"When people hear that XRP goes to $100 or even $589, they immediately say: 'This market value is impossible.' I personally think this is one of the biggest misunderstandings in the cryptocurrency space. The market value is just the final transaction price multiplied by the amount of circulating supply, which does not mean that there is so much capital invested..."--Bird (@Bird_XRPL), July 31, 2026

Long-term value depends on the growth of the XRP ledger

Bird recommends evaluating XRP based on what the XRP ledger is likely to look like in the next five, ten or twenty years, rather than how it performs today. He paints a future scenario: trillions of dollars in tokenized real-world assets-including government bonds, corporate bonds, stocks, real estate, commodities, private credit, stablecoins and money market funds-will run on the chain.

He also pointed to the potential growth of RLUSD and other digital assets natively issued on XRP ledgers. Combining decentralized exchanges, automated market makers, institutional lending, AI-driven transactions, institutional and retail transactions, and interconnected global liquidity pools, Bird believes the network could evolve into a major financial ecosystem rather than a traditional cryptocurrency platform.

According to Bird, if this shift occurs, the value of XRP will no longer come solely from speculative trading. Instead, it will serve as a native asset that supports large financial infrastructure used by institutions, businesses, developers, liquidity providers and investors.

Supply and demand and liquidity or determining future prices

Bird believes that the long-term value of XRP will ultimately depend on supply and demand relationships. Due to the limited supply of XRP, increased participation from retail investors, financial institutions, corporations, exchange-traded funds, banks and liquidity providers may intensify competition for available tokens.

He added that not all XRPs will remain active buying status. Some positions may be locked in liquidity pools, used as collateral, held by ETFs, controlled by institutions, held by long-term investors, or lost permanently. As liquid supply declines and demand grows, Bird believes market prices will naturally rise accordingly.

Bird also emphasized that institutions need deep liquidity to conduct large settlements. He believes that a higher XRP valuation will allow each token to carry greater value, making the network more efficient in large-scale financial transactions.

Institutional adoption remains a key condition

While Bird is optimistic about XRP's long-term prospects, he also acknowledges that extraordinary progress will be needed to achieve prices like $100 or even $589.

He pointed out that a valuation of $100 may depend on the following conditions: widespread adoption of XRP ledgers, trillions of dollars in tokenized asset markets, continued growth of RLUSD and other assets on the chain, clear global regulation, deep liquidity, and tens of millions of XRP holders.

He added that to reach $589, a higher level of adoption would be needed to make XRP ledgers one of the world's leading financial networks, supporting tens of trillions of dollars in tokenized assets and economic activity, and having hundreds of millions of users.

Bird made it clear that these goals are ambitious and not inevitable. But he maintains that history has repeatedly proven that industries that were once seen as impractical have eventually become mainstream. As a result, he believes it is more appropriate to evaluate XRP based on its long-term potential than to limit its expectations to its current role in the digital asset market.