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FollowingMatt Hogan, CIO of Bitwise: Even if Congress misses the deadline, cryptocurrencies can continue to grow
Matt Hogan, CIO of Bitwise, said that even if Congress fails to pass the Clarification Act before the Senate recess this week, the cryptocurrency market can still move forward.
Key Points:
Hogan expects that even without the Clarification Act, the cryptocurrency market and online finance will continue to expand. Securities and Exchange Commission rules may provide faster relief, but future governments could overturn them. The delay could keep professional investors cautious and plunge the bill into long-term uncertainty.
Deadline for the Clarity Act
The Senate has a very limited window of time to advance the market structure bill: the deadline for motion to end debate is August 5, and lawmakers are expected to leave Washington after August 7. The official state working period of the Senate lasts from August 10 to September 11, and no full vote has yet been scheduled.
In an August 4 investment memorandum, Hogan said the industry would "find a way out" if Congress failed to act. He described the bill's current state as "walking dead"-meaning lawmakers could revisit it in the fall or include it in their legislative package at the end of the year. Forecast markets show that the probability of the bill passing before the end of the year has dropped to 23% from about 75% in mid-May.
Political differences remain unresolved: Democratic lawmakers have expressed concerns about suspected conflicts of interest in cryptocurrencies, while senators and tribal gaming regulators have sought to add provisions to ban sports-related forecasting markets.
Hogan's Outlook on Cryptocurrencies
Hogan believes that SEC Chairman Paul Atkins can address many of the bill's core issues through institutional rules. Atkins has said the committee is "ready, willing and capable" to develop similar standards. Hogan calls this a short-term advantage.
But this path has stability issues: future governments may appoint a new chairman to change the rules, and legislation could provide a more stable framework for exchanges, custodians and investors.
Hogan pointed out that with the increasing participation of BlackRock, Nasdaq, JPMorgan and Visa, a comprehensive regulatory retreat has become increasingly difficult. He estimates that the industry will have at least two and a half years to deepen adoption before the next administration appoints new SEC leadership.
Still, he urged Congress to pass the bill, saying it would strengthen investor protection, ethics and the United States 'competitiveness in on-chain finance.
The Clarity Act originated from FIT21, which was passed in the House of Representatives in May 2024, and a new version of the bill was subsequently advanced in Congress in May 2025. Its lengthy process reflects long-standing differences over which agencies should regulate digital assets and how federal law should classify the cryptocurrency market.
