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OpenAI sprints for a trillion-dollar IPO, but loses $14 billion annually

2026-08-18 12:13:51
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OpenAI is preparing an unprecedented move: let the public market, rather than venture capitalists, decide how much ChatGPT's parent company is worth. This will be the largest public listing attempt by an artificial intelligence company to date.

Key numbers to promote listings

OpenAI has worked with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase to secretly submit initial public offering (IPO) applications, with the goal of landing on the public market as early as September 2026. Valuation expectations continued to climb during the year, from about US$730 billion initially to US$850 billion in June, and now it is close to US$1 trillion. The company's most recent disclosed private equity valuation came from a financing round involving Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank and other institutions in March 2026, when the valuation was US$852 billion.

The growth figures supporting this valuation are considerable: OpenAI reports monthly revenue of approximately US$2 billion, ChatGPT has more than 900 million weekly active users, and corporate contract revenue has exceeded 40%. Full year revenue in 2026 is expected to be approximately US$30 billion.

The numbers investors are really watching

But the problem is equally huge. OpenAI expects to lose approximately US$14 billion in 2026, and the company said it is not expected to achieve positive cash flow until 2030. A widely cited estimate shows that by the end of the decade, OpenAI's total burned money will exceed $100 billion. This combination-losing more than $1 for every $1 earned under the trillion-dollar valuation target-is precisely a test that open market discipline has never been tested in a private equity round.

Not the only AI giant heading to Wall Street

OpenAI is not listed alone. Competitor Anthropic secretly submitted a draft S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1, 2026, with a target to go public in October and a valuation that could exceed US$900 billion. SpaceX has also separately submitted a public S-1 document, with a target valuation of between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. Three of the world's most valuable private companies have crowded into the public market in just a few months, unprecedented by any standard, and the first to go public will effectively set a pricing benchmark for others.

Why a listing at this time makes sense for OpenAI

The trillion-dollar construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure-chips, data centers, energy contracts-has brought real financial pressure to the entire industry, which is an important reason why OpenAI and Anthropic are now turning to open capital markets rather than waiting. A public offering can unlock a fundamentally larger capital pool than private equity rounds, which is crucial for companies whose computing costs are growing rapidly in tandem with revenue.

What changes will happen to ordinary investors

So far, almost all of the financial benefits of the artificial intelligence boom have gone to venture capital funds and a few private investors. A successful IPO of OpenAI will change that, allowing ordinary investors-and in turn through index funds in many people's retirement accounts-to hold shares in OpenAI directly, sometimes without even taking the initiative to choose. This opportunity has both advantages and disadvantages: Buying a company that relies heavily on future expectations rather than current profitability valuation will bear real risks if financial data is audited and disclosed to grow or profit margins fall short of expectations.

What to Focus on next

Mandatory SEC disclosures in public offering filings will be the first time external investors have seen OpenAI's actual audited financial data-cost structure, profit margins, and contractual obligations that have previously been hidden behind the walls of private companies. Focusing on the final pricing and number of shares, OpenAI says it depends entirely on market conditions at the time of listing; it also focuses on how the broader wave of artificial intelligence IPOs performs after the actual transaction begins, rather than just based on estimated valuations.

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