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BTC Bitcoin and gold fluctuate almost simultaneously
Bitfinex analysts pointed out that this correlation has climbed to a level that is difficult to maintain in the long term in its historical data. The exchange's view is based on a logic: investors worried about government debt and loose monetary policy will view precious metals and cryptocurrencies as safe havens for funds.
The Delta-Thermo multiple is currently 2.03, while the trigger threshold is 2.5 times. In a post dated August 28, 2026, Bitfinex stated that Bitcoin and gold are both different forms of the same currency devaluation hedging instrument, with Bitcoin being a "higher beta version." Analysts wrote that the correlation "is close to the top of its historical range, which has never been maintained for long periods of time."
Bitfinex posted on platform X: "The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is close to the top of its historical range, and this range has never been maintained for a long time." When two assets are closely linked, there is usually something that forces them to separate. Bitfinex pointed to the next stress test, saying a risk aversion shock would reveal "whether Bitcoin follows gold or falls with stocks."
The company believes Bitcoin's cycle is surpassing its association with gold. In a separate post on August 27, Bitfinex said the asset had "moved out of the fundraising stage" and entered an expansion period. Its Delta-Thermo market multiple is 2.03, slightly below the 2.5 times level the model uses to signal the start of a bull market, while the allocation top of 3.5 times is further away. Analysts made it clear that they interpreted this as "the beginning of a bull market phase rather than a rush to the top."
Walsh hints at interest rate hikes during his Jackson Hole debut.
According to Cryptopolitan, on August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant doubled the minimum limit for each government's long-term bond repurchase operation to $4 billion, up from $2 billion previously, and the implementation period will be from September 9 to November 4. Long-term government bond yields rose to nearly two-decade highs, while 30-year government bond yields reached 5.337% due to weak demand. After the signal came out, the dollar fell, gold gained buying, and Bitcoin rose.
Bitfinex linked the current scenario to a similar period in 2024, when JPMorgan strategists attributed the trend to "concerns about continued high government deficits leading to 'debt'." Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh was hawkish during his debut in Jackson Hole, emphasizing that the 2% inflation target had not yet been achieved and hinted that interest rates were imminent. The rate hike runs counter to the currency devaluation narrative that Bitfinex believes drives current transactions.
The Fear and Greed Index for cryptocurrencies reached 81, the first "Extreme Greed" reading in 616 days, and funding rates also hit a 20-month high. Short-term holder Whales cashed in approximately $1.2 billion in profits between August 20 and 22. This rising market, which relies on borrowing funds and faces whale selling, may expose its vulnerability due to a risk aversion shock.
