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FollowingRecord buyer's market in the U.S. real estate market: dual driving by shrinking demand and increasing supply
The U.S. real estate market has entered the strongest "buyer's market" stage in history, but this change is not solely due to the improvement of the supply side, but also due to the significant decline of the demand side. Data showed that the number of home sellers outnumbered buyers by about 57.9% in August this year, the largest gap between supply and demand since records began in 2013. The imbalance ratio rose sharply from 52.1% in July and set a new record. Specifically, there are approximately 1.53 million sellers nationwide, while only 972,300 buyers are.
The surge in the number of listings is the main driving force. In August, the number of sellers increased by 3.9% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase on record; in contrast, the number of buyers increased only slightly by 0.1%. This disparity has fundamentally changed the negotiation pattern of the market.
Buyers have a stronger say, but the threshold for buying a house remains high
Normally, a record buyer's market means that buying conditions are more favorable. However, the current situation is more complex. Three-fifths of the homes sold in August ended up selling at prices below the listing price, while total housing inventory reached its highest level since 2020. In order to attract a shrinking group of buyers, sellers have adopted strategies such as lowering prices, providing maintenance subsidies or assisting in meeting transfer fees.
Despite this, high borrowing costs still keep many households out of the market. Recently, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed to the 6.7%-6.9% range, continuing previous analysis of affordability pressures caused by mortgage rates approaching 7%. High interest rates cause so much pain because house prices remain high. Despite weakening demand, the national median transaction price in August still rose by about 2.2% year-on-year. This explains why the market benefits active buyers on the one hand, but completely excludes millions of potential home buyers on the other.
The Sun Belt market has the most severe imbalance between supply and demand
National averages conceal huge regional differences. Nashville has 139% more sellers than buyers, followed by Miami (138%) and Houston (131%). Currently, there are at least twice as many sellers as buyers in eight major metropolitan areas, including Orlando, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Austin and Dallas.
This shift is particularly striking because the real estate market has long faced the opposite problem: a shortage of housing. During the epidemic, the "mortgage lock-in effect" made millions of homeowners reluctant to move because they were reluctant to give up low-interest loans with interest rates below 3%-4%. Today, this effect is weakening. Despite higher interest rates, more homeowners are choosing to list for sale, while buyer demand continues to be limited. In August, sales of existing homes fell again by 2%, with annualized sales falling to 3.98 million units, the lowest level in 14 months; meanwhile, available inventory climbed to 1.62 million units.
