比特币暴跌预警信号凸显周一风险，而比特币现金则逆势上涨

Bitcoin crash warning: Linking Fed policy to yield pressure

A Bitcoin crash warning recently circulated on social media platforms linked potential Monday's market turmoil to Fed policy and tightening liquidity. This view illustrates its logic by comparing the S & P 500 with the Benner Cycle, a historical framework for interpreting market volatility. However, this comparison does not confirm that a crash is inevitable on October 5, 2026.

The warning believes that the Fed is facing conflicting pressures from inflation, borrowing costs and slowing economic growth. Keeping interest rates high could increase financing costs, while easing policies could stimulate demand and reignite inflation risks. The post claimed that long-term Treasury yields had reached their highest level since 2007 and cited about $40 trillion in U.S. debt data to draw parallels between potential U.S. policy constraints and Japan. These claims are forecasts for specific accounts and need to be verified against specific treasury bonds maturities and reporting dates.

It should be noted that there is a difference between long-term yields and overnight policy rates. The U.S. Treasury releases market benchmark readings covering different periods, rather than a single general rate of return. Official U.S. Treasury documents and Federal Reserve guidance describe a broader policy process. Policy changes can affect borrowing costs and financial conditions, but their economic effects are neither direct nor immediate. This weakens the argument that a single interest rate decision automatically leads to a crash.

For this Bitcoin collapse warning, the transmission mechanism proposed is that liquidity tightening and subsequent asset values fall. The account lists stocks, bonds, silver and bitcoin as assets that may be subject to forced selling. Such sell-offs typically occur when investors are in urgent need of cash or when leveraged positions hit margin requirements. However, identifying this possibility does not mean determining its size, timing, or probability of occurrence.

Another key difference lies in calendar arrangements. The Fed listed the next scheduled policy meeting as October 27 - 28 instead of October 5. Markets may still fluctuate ahead of the meeting as they reassess inflation and growth expectations. Therefore, the comparison of the Benner cycle is only an interpretation of past patterns, and the Bitcoin crash warning does not provide conclusive evidence that the pattern is associated with a specific Monday sell-off.

BCH's rise but shrinking trading volume puts bullish momentum in doubt

Despite the crash warnings, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) performed relatively strongly, but this did not eliminate broader market risks. Comments on social media have linked interest in BCH and Bitcoin SV (BSV) to derivatives headlines and funding rounds. Some people point out that the rotation of funds from mainstream assets to mature forked currencies may be the reason for this divergence, but this explanation is still speculative. The difference in returns does not prove that investors sold Bitcoin to buy its forked coins, and the accompanying market comments lack clear BCH specific positive announcements.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin Cash is trading above its 7-day simple moving average ($313.88). Its 14-cycle Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 63.52, indicating that the market still has positive momentum at current levels below the traditional overbought threshold.

However, 24-hour trading volume fell by approximately 37% to approximately US$152.9 million. The decline in turnover meant that confirmation of the rise was weaker, although trading volume itself was not the only measure of market liquidity. The most recent support is at $306.59, corresponding to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Holding this area may support further testing of $328.44, followed by a broader $328 - 330 resistance range. These Fibonacci levels track the latest correction from the recent BCH band high of $363.75.

If prices are to continue to break through resistance, stronger market participation is needed to improve technical forms. A break below $306.59 will expose the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $288.93 as the next support point.

In addition, Bitcoin crash warnings also focus attention on the stability of Bitcoin and the flow of spot ETF funds. Continued net inflows are expected to improve market sentiment, while net outflows may put pressure on underlying assets. Although Bitcoin Cash outperforms the broader market in daily performance, it remains sensitive to these macro conditions. In the short term, whether Bitcoin can remain above $84,000 is a key reference point, and it is also necessary to pay close attention to BCH trading volume and its reaction near the Fibonacci support level.