XRP soared 4%, traders stared at key triangle breakout, targeting $1.35

XRP rose 4%, but key resistance levels have not yet been broken.

On Tuesday, XRP rose 4%, once again attracting the attention of technical analysts, but this wave of market did not solve the outstanding structural problems on the chart. The token briefly tested short-term resistance, but remained trapped under a heavy supply area that had suppressed the upside for weeks. Price movements highlight the high-risk game between the long and short sides: bulls try to confirm a breakthrough in a multi-week triangle pattern, while bears hold on to the key $1.24 to $1.28 price range.

The current chart pattern is a downward triangle, which has compressed XRP prices into a narrower range since mid-June. A decisive break through the upper trend line usually signals a bullish reversal, and prices are expected to rise to the $1.35 region based on the morphological measurement target. However, when encountering supply areas where bears have entered in large numbers, this textbook-style format is often difficult to work. 1.24 The to $1.28 area is one such supply area-XRP had previously peaked here and was subsequently distributed.

Unconfirmed Triangle

For traders tracking geometry, the downward triangles that form on the four-hour and daily cycles cannot be ignored. Lower highs continue to suppress horizontal support near $1.10, accumulating energy for potential breakthroughs. Tuesday's 4% gain briefly penetrated the upper boundary during the session, but the daily close lacked strength. If a physically full K-line fails to close above $1.24, a breakthrough remains unconfirmed. Many algorithms and momentum-driven strategies may wait for a second consecutive trading day to close above the region before reallocating funds.

Volume data also paints a cautious picture. Spot buying is stable but not explosive, indicating that this wave is driven more by short-term speculators than long-term capital accumulation. This makes triangular breakouts vulnerable to false breakouts-a wash-up trend that may lure more and fall back into the $1.10 to $1.15 range. The credibility of this pattern depends entirely on how prices once again touch the supply zone.

US$1.24 - 1.28 Supply Area: The Key to Success

The supply area is not an abstract resistance line, but represents real liquidity-institutional traders, market makers and swing traders have previously placed sell orders here. XRP's current supply-intensive area formed after a sharp correction in early July, when the token failed to hold above $1.25 for more than several hours. Every rebound to the region since then has encountered selling pressure, further strengthening its importance. A clean break of US$1.28, backed by strong volume, would turn into support and could push prices quickly to US$1.35-an area that coincides with the triangle's measurement target and the early price turning point in May.

However, the path is not smooth. The 50-day moving average is around $1.23 and has served as dynamic resistance for the past two weeks. Traders seeking confirmation would like to see XRP break both the moving average and the $1.28 ceiling in a single move. Failure to do so could extend the consolidation period and shift downside risks to the US$1.05 support level-the convergence area at the bottom of the triangle. This will put bulls on the defensive and delay any meaningful recovery narrative.

Regulatory clouds and external noise

The technical trend of XRP is shrouded in unresolved regulatory tensions. Although a 2023 federal court ruling that XRP is not a security in secondary market sales provided legal clarity, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's appeal process is still injecting uncertainty into agency adoption decisions. Market participants are also watching broader legislative developments; a major cryptocurrency bill is facing final resistance from the bank lobby just days before the Senate vote. Any bill that establishes a clear federal framework for digital assets could directly affect XRP's classification, the practicality of cross-border payments, and exchange listings-factors that can affect its long-term valuation model.

Altcoins have mixed momentum this week, but local strength has emerged. Some low-market tokens recorded double-digit gains. Although XRP's 4% increase is relatively moderate, it is prominent because it comes from high-market capitalization assets, has tighter liquidity, and has a more mature holder base. At the same time, blockchain developer activity indicators, which measure ecosystem health, show that mature public chains still dominate. XRP Ledger's developer base has remained relatively stable, but the lack of explosive on-chain growth may limit upside catalysts beyond pure price speculation.

Follow-up Focus

The situation is simple: XRP must recover $1.28 and hold on to it. The narrative of the triangular breakthrough will either self-verify or degenerate into another failure pattern, and the daily close in the next few days will play a decisive role. Traders entering early in the rally could take some profits near the supply area, adding to historic selling pressure in the area. Outside the charts, any unexpected ruling or SEC filing could completely override technical trends, reminding market participants that XRP's price path rarely follows pure chart logic.

Currently, the US$1.24 to US$1.28 range is still a watershed. A convincing breakthrough would attract chasers and force short covering, potentially accelerating the move towards $1.35. Conversely, if rejected, it is likely to cause the token to re-test the $1.05 near the lower edge of the triangle, providing a new opportunity for bears to test the determination of bulls. The market is paying close attention.